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Severe Storm

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forecast valid from 00:00 until 23:00 on Friday 2 August

Synoptic

A frontal system, inserted in an intense western flow present in free atmosphere, will pass during the day tomorrow on the north of Italy determining a full-bodied worsening of the weather, with hail, flooding and gusts of wind.

The deterioration will be divided substantially into two phases.
The first, from night until early afternoon, with prefrontal thunderstorms that will ride the ascending branch of the jet streak (movement from west / south west to east / north east).

The second, from early afternoon until the evening, with frontal thunderstorms that will affect larger areas but which will be less organized.

The most stringent parameters will be localized in the first phase, in fact we estimate, despite the night / morning hours, peaks on the 2100J / kg of Cape (energy available at the convection), shear (variation of direction and intensity of the wind with the altitude) on 20-25m / s and good values ​​of energy helicity that will favor the formation of organized systems and supercells

The frontal phase will instead see a greater entry of cold air at altitude but a simultaneous collapse of parameters such as shear and a drop in the jet.
Multi-cell or Mcs thunderstorms will be favored.

Lombardy, Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia, Emilia Romagna and Trentino

Very active prefrontal phase between middle high plains and Alpine area (level 2-3). The thunderstorms will develop over Lombardy in the very early hours of the night, evolving towards Veneto, Trentino and Friuli, resulting organized and with the possibility of long-lasting supercells, especially between Veronese, Vicentino, Padovano, Veneziano, Rodigino and Trevigiano, where, in the morning, it will be established a convergence between Bora and Scirocco.

In fact, despite the night / morning hours, Cape values ​​are estimated at around 2100J / kg, with the possibility of medium to large hailstorms (> 3cm), flooding, with discomfort and gusts of wind.

The frontal phase will instead be more active in the middle low plains (Emilia Romagna and Veneto border).

The entry of cold air at altitude will allow the development of many thunderstorm cells, but the simultaneous collapse of the shear will determine the evolution of multicellular-cluster or Mcs (mesoscale convective system) thunderstorms.

The areas affected by heavy rain, hail and downburst with gusts above 100km / h will be considerable, with probable inconvenience.
PAY ATTENTION

Piedmont, Valle d'Aosta and Liguria

Prefrontal phase that will determine some thunderstorms between Alto Piemonte and Valle D'Aosta but rapidly evolving towards the east.

Afternoon frontal phase that will be more active on the mid-low plains, especially between Langhe and Monferrato, where the formation of multicell clusters will be possible.

Despite the level 1 emitted, the very high Cape values ​​(peaks up to 2500J / Kg) make medium-sized hailstorms and wind blows possible.
Possible thundering storms also attenuated along the Ligurian coast, especially in the stretch between Andora and Genoa.

Marche

Although not shown on the map, an obligatory citation for the northern area of ​​the Marche bordering Romagna.
Between afternoon and evening he will find himself on the southern edge of the disturbance, thus keeping shear on high values ​​and at the same time a good convergence of winds to the ground.
In this area it will be possible to form one or two supercells, with the possibility of hailstorms.

Jacopo Zannoni

The member of the storm chasers group ZenaStormChaser from Genoa, Italy. Follow ZenaStormChaser on Facebook, Instagram or Twitter

forecast valid from 06.00 to 23.59 UTC on Friday 26 July

The hegemony of the North African high pressure ends under the blows of an imposing Atlantic perturbation that will literally break through, with its load of cold air, from the western quadrants, determining a perturbed weekend on most of Italy.

At the end of this summer break we will certainly count the damage for very violent phenomena.

Tomorrow will see a first baric collapse with thunderstorms mostly for relief purposes.

The jet stream (current of air present in free atmosphere that "transports" thunderstorms) will tend to dispose from west / south west with sharp and sudden destabilization of the air column

The abnormal energy in play will facilitate the formation of violent thunderstorms with the possibility of medium-large hailstorms.

Veneto, Friuli Venezia Giulia e Emilia Romagna

Thunderstorms that will develop during the early afternoon on the alpine reliefs. South-eastern ventilation on the lower Veneto will drag energy values ​​(Cape) between 2500 and 2800 J / kg up to the Alps, with a serious risk of high intensity phenomena (Level 2-3 Alpine area). Indeed, storms, floods, landslides and medium-large hailstones are likely to occur. We strongly advise against outings especially on the exposed ridges.

The storms will move from west to east, affecting the entire Alpine and pre-Alpine area of ​​Friuli by late evening.
Trespassing on the high plains is not excluded.

Between late afternoon and evening, some parameters pushed to the limit suggest a sudden trigger in the middle of the plain on the border between Emilia and Veneto.

On these areas a convergence will take place between the humid south-east rising from the Adriatic and the drier sw from the Apennines, towards evening the outflow of the alpine storms could even create a triple point of convergence.

The trigger at high altitude to trigger this bomb ready to jump appears really bland but if it were to trigger, the storm would find an abnormal energy to be exploited with peaks above 3000J / kg and the possibility of large hailstones (> 5 cm), flooding and Tornado

P.Š. Only level 2 was issued due to doubts about the trigger, possible raising to 3 in case of further confirmation by the models.

Alps (Level 1) And appennines

Afternoon phenomena with hail and in some cases local flooding, local and temporary trespassing on the neighboring plains are not excluded.

Jacopo Zannoni

The member of the storm chasers group ZenaStormChaser from Genoa, Italy. Follow ZenaStormChaser on Facebook, Instagram or Twitter