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Tropical Cyclone Belna Warning #11 (JTWC)

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Tropical Cyclone Belna Warning 10 (JTWC)

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• Update: At 9:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna (02S) was located near 17.0S 44.7E, approx. 430 NM northeast of Europa Island, and has tracked south-southwestward at 9 knots (kts) over the past six hours. Animated Enhanced Infrared (EIR) satellite imagery reveals a 125 NM central dense overcast feature and radial outflow located over northern Madagascar.

  Around 1:30 p.m. UTC, Tropical Cyclone Belna formed a small eye and underwent a brief period of intensification prior to landfall. However, by 4:00 p.m. UTC, the eye filled. The initial position is set with good confidence based on turning in the eir imagery supported by an extrapolation of the microwave eye feature observed in a 3:23 p.m. SSMIS 91 ghz microwave image.

  The initial intensity is set at 75 kts based on the weakening convective structure of the system due to land interaction. The system remains in a favorable environment of good radial outflow and low (5-10 kt) vertical wind shear (VWS).

  Belna is tracking along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge (STR) to the east. In the near-term, TC Belna will track south-southwest along the coastline as it continues to weaken. The system is expected to briefly track over coastal waters with sea surface temperatures of 28-30 celsius, which may allow for a short period of slight intensification.

  Between TAUs 24 and 36, the system will round the STR axis and turn to a southeastward track for the remainder of the forecast period. land interaction with the terrain of Madagascar will cause Belna to dissipate. Notably, a remnant circulation may track off of Madagascar and emerge over the southern Indian Ocean.

  The JTWC track forecast is placed to the east of multi-model consensus to offset a western outlier (UKMET ensemble). Overall, the models are in good agreement with a model spread of 97 NM at TAU 48, lending fair confidence to the JTWC track forecast (Warning #11).

• Update We've uploaded the latest JTWC forecast cone. Click here to view the latest TC Belna cone (warning #11) on any Windy layer.

Previous Belna coverage

Tropical Cyclone Belna has made landfall near town of Soalala in northern Madagascar. Belna was strengthening in the last several hours with winds of 90 mph (145 km/h), gusting to 115 mph (185 km/h), with a pressure of 978 mb. Rapid weakening is expected over land.

Although Belna is small in size, the areas along the northwestern coast could see damaging winds, heavy rain, flooding and storm surge. Moisture from the storm could also fuel heavy rain in other parts of the country.

Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Belna

Tropical Cyclone Belna Satellite Imagery

https://www.windy.com/upload/5deec32c8266f2001955aea3?satellite,-17.738,45.000,6,internal

Tropical Cyclone Ambali reached its peak early on Dec. 6 and has been quickly weakening. NASA’s Aqua satellite captured a visible image of the Southern Indian Ocean storm after it weakened from its powerful peak intensity.

At 4 a.m. EST (0900 UTC) on Dec. 6 Ambali was a Category 4 hurricane equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale with maximum sustained winds near 135 knots (155 mph/250 kph). By 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC) on Dec. 6, those winds had dropped by 45 knots (52 mph/83 kph).

It was after that drop in sustained wind speed on Dec. 6, 2019, the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite provided a visible image of Ambali.

The eye of the storm was difficult to pinpoint in the MODIS image, which indicated a rapid weakening from its previous status. Animated enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a rapidly decaying system with cycling convection wrapping into an embedded low-level circulation center.

At 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC) on Dec. 6, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC noted that Tropical Cyclone Ambali was located near 11.7 degrees south latitude and 62.1 degrees east longitude. That is about 583 nautical miles north-northeast of Port Louis, Mauritius. Maximum sustained winds 90 knots (104 mph/167 kph). The storm is on weakening trend now that will lead to its demise by Dec. 10.

Forecasters at the JTWC Ambali will move south-southwest and appears to have reached peak intensity. The storm is expected to dissipate after three days.

NASA’s Aqua satellite is one in a fleet of NASA satellites that provide data for hurricane research.

Tropical cyclones are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,-5.922,66.050,4,internal

NASA provided analyses of Typhoon Kammuri’s heavy rainfall on its track through the Northwestern Pacific Ocean using the Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM core satellite.

Instantaneous surface rain rates (mm/hr) associated with Typhoon Kammuri derived from the Dual-polarization Radar onboard the GPM core satellite at 18:27 UTC 29 November 2019 (3:27 am Palau Time, PWT, 30 November) when the storm was moving westward through the central Philippine Sea. GPM showed areas of moderate to heavy rain (shown in yellow, orange and red, respectively) organized into loose bands rotating around the northern and western side of the storm. Image from NASA GSFC using GPM data archived at https://pps.gsfc.nasa.gov/.

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially ended on November 30, Typhoon Kammuri (known as Tisoy in the Philippines), which recently struck the central Philippines as a powerful Category 4 typhoon, is a reminder that the Pacific typhoon season is not yet over.

In fact, while typhoon season does peak from around June through November, similar to the Atlantic, typhoons can occur throughout the year in the Pacific.

History of Kammuri

Kammuri first formed into a tropical depression from an area of low pressure on the 25th of November north of Micronesia in the west central Pacific about 500 miles southeast of Guam.

Kammuri intensified slowly and was still a tropical storm when the center passed about 130 miles south of Guam on the evening of Dec. 26.

As the storm made its way through the eastern and central Philippine Sea over the next few days it was kept in check at times by moderate wind shear and hovered around typhoon intensity.

Typhoon Kammuri’s surface rainfall accumulations estimated from the NASA IMERG from Nov. 24 at 7 p.m. EST to Dec 3 at 10 p.m. EST. Heaviest rains were over the central Philippine Sea where the cyclone stalled. Those were well over 500 mm (~20 inches, in red). Most of the central Philippines, including southern Luzon, received up to 150 mm or more (over 6 inches, light blue areas) with the highest amounts over the northern half of the island of Samar where rainfall totals ranged from 250 to 350 mm (~10 to 14 inches, shown in yellow and light orange). Credit: NASA GSFC using IMERG data/with the Giovanni online data system, developed and maintained by the NASA GES DISC.

Analyzing Kammuri’s Rainfall from Space

During this period, the GPM core satellite overflew the storm. The first image was taken at on Nov. 29, 2019 at 1:27 p.m. EST (18:27 UTC/Nov. 30, 2019 at 3:27 a.m. local Palau Time, PWT) and shows surface rain rates within Kammuri from the GPM Dual-polarization Radar (DPR) when the storm was about 800 miles east of the Philippines.

At the time, Kammuri was a Category 1 typhoon with sustained winds estimated at 85 mph by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

GPM, a satellite managed by both NASA and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, showed areas of moderate to heavy rain organized into loose bands rotating around the northern and western side of the storm.

The eye, which is located along the right side of the image, was identifiable by the curvature in the inner rain bands, but the eyewall itself appeared rather weak.

These features are consistent with Kammuri having a well-developed though not yet powerful circulation. That would change over the next few days as Kammuri began to approach the Philippines.

Initially, Kammuri weakened slightly after the time of the GPM overpass, but then on the evening of December 1 (local time), the storm began a rapid deepening cycle and intensified from a Category 1 typhoon with sustained winds estimated at 80 mph by JTWC at 12:00 UTC (7 a.m. EST/9:00 pm PWT) on the Dec. 1 to a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 130 mph just 24 hours later. It was at this time that Kammuri made its first landfall in the Philippines around 11:00 p.m. local time near Gubat in the Bicol region in the Province of Sorsogon along the southeastern tip of Luzon.

As it continued on westward through the central Philippines, Kammuri weakened, crossing the island of Mindoro as a Category 2 storm before exiting the Philippines into the eastern South China Sea.

IMERG Finds Heavy Rains in the Philippines

In addition to its powerful winds, Kammuri brought heavy rains to the Philippines. IMERG, the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM, is a unified satellite precipitation product produced by NASA to estimate surface precipitation over most of the globe. IMERG is managed at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md.

With IMERG, precipitation estimates from the GPM core satellite are used to calibrate precipitation estimates from microwave and infrared sensors on other satellites to produce half-hourly precipitation maps at 0.1o horizontal resolution.

IMERG surface rainfall accumulations for the period from Nov. 25 through Dec. 3 for the Philippines and the surrounding region from the time when Kammuri first became a tropical depression southeast of Guam until it had passed over Mindoro and into the South China Sea.

The heaviest rains associated with Kammuri by far are off shore, especially over the central Philippine Sea where the cyclone stalled for a period producing rainfall totals well over 500 mm (~20 inches).

Over land, most of the central Philippines, including southern Luzon, received on the order of 150 mm or more (over 6 inches) with the highest amounts over the northern half of the island of Samar where rainfall totals are on the order of 250 to 350 mm (~10 to 14 inches).

So far, Kammuri is being blamed for up to 17 fatalities in the Philippines. After leaving the Philippines, Kammuri weakened significantly and is expected to weaken even further and dissipate as the cyclone is sheared apart and driven southward by the northeast monsoon.

Kammuri’s Status on Dec. 5

On Dec. 5 at 4 a.m. EST (0900 UTC), Tropical Storm Kammuri was in the South China Sea and was dealing with adverse atmospheric conditions, which were weakening the storm. It was centered near latitude 13.8 degrees north and longitude 113.7 degrees east, about 340 nautical miles east-southeast of Da Nang, Vietnam. Kammuri was moving to the southwest and had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/65 kph), making it a Category 1 tropical storm.

Kammuri continues to weaken and is expected to dissipate soon.

Steve Lang
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,9.882,113.994,3,internal

Tropical Cyclone Ambali has intensified by a whopping 115 mph (185 km/h) in the past 24 hours. According to Philip Klotzbach, who is a Meteorologist at CSU specializing in Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts, it’s the most rapid intensification in a 24-hour period by a Southern Hemisphere named storm on record (since 1980), breaking the old record set by Ernie in 2017: 110 mph (177 km/h) in 24 hours.

The only Northern Hemisphere named storm to intensify more in a 24-hour period in the satellite era (since 1966) was Patricia (2015) in the eastern North Pacific: 120 mph (193 km/h) in 24 hours.

The Atlantic 24-hour rapid intensification record in the satellite era (since 1966) is Wilma in 2005 (110 mph in 24 hours).

At 2:00 a.m. UTC, Ambali was equivalent of Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 155 mph (249 km/h). Track the path of Tropical Cyclone Ambali with Windy Hurricane Tracker at www.windy.com/hurricanes

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,-14.062,61.183,6,internal

Typhoon Kammuri (TisoyPH) Warning 30 (JTWC)

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Typhoon Tisoy (Kammuri) slightly weakens and is now heading Batangas - northern Oriental Mindoro area

Tropical Cyclone WARNING Issued at 11:00 am, 03 December 2019 (Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2:00 pm today.)

"TISOY" made landfall over Marinduque at 8:30 AM today.

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

• Between morning and late afternoon today: Frequent to continuous heavy to intense rains over Romblon, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Bataan, Pampanga and Bulacan. Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Bicol Region and the rest of Central Luzon. Intermittent heavy rains over Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and the northern portions of Negros Provinces.
• Between late afternoon today and tomorrow morning: Frequent to continuous heavy (with isolated intense) rains over Mindoro Provinces, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Rizal, and Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands. Occasional heavy rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Marinduque, Romblon and the rest of CALABARZON. Intermittent heavy rains over Calamian Islands.
• Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate actions, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.

Other Hazards and Information

• Forecast storm surge: up to 3 meters over several coastal areas in Batangas, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Cavite, and Batangas. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning #8 issued at 8 AM today.
• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals over Ifugao, Mountain Province, Northern Cebu, Bohol, northern Negros Oriental, Eastern Samar and the rest of Samar are now lifted.
• Sea travel is risky, especially for small seacrafts, over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the western seaboard of Palawan, the seaboards of Visayas, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao due to rough sea conditions
• Gusty conditions may also be experienced in areas in Northern Luzon that are not under any TCWS (especially in the coastal and mountainous zones) due to the Northeast Monsoon.

Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon "TISOY" was located based on all available data at 55 km East of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.4 °N, 121.7 °E )

Movement

Moving West at 25 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 205 kph

Typhoon Tisoy (Kammuri) Forecast Track

Forecast Position

• 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 280 km West Southwest of Subic, Zambales(14.2°N, 117.8°E)
• 48 Hour(Thursday morning):615 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)(14.9°N, 114.6°E)
• 72 Hour(Friday morning): 730 km West of Coron, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.1°N, 113.5°E)

Areas with Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3

Luzon

• Burias Islands
• Romblon
• southern portion of Quezon (Perez
• Alabat
• Quezon
• Mauban
• Sampaloc
• Lucban
• Tayabas
• Pagbilao
• Lucena
• Sariaya
• Candelaria
• Dolores
• Tiaong
• San Antonio
• Atimonan
• Padre Burgos
• Agdangan
• Plaridel
• Unisan
• Pitogo
• Gumaca
• Lopez
• Macalelon
• General Luna
• Calauag
• Catanauan
• Guinayangan
• Tagkawayan
• Buenavista
• Mulanay
• San Narciso
• San Francisco
• San Andres)
• Marinduque
• Oriental Mindoro
• Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• Batangas
• Cavite
• Laguna

Visayas

• —

Mindanao

• —

Meteorological Condition

• A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
• Winds of greater than 121 kph up to 170 kph may be expected in at least 18 hours.

Impact of the Wind

• Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.
• Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be uprooted.
• Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
• Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.
• There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
• In general, moderate to heavy damage may be experienced, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors.

Precautionary Measures

• The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected.
• The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts.
• Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
• People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
• Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north.
• When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south.
• Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings.
• Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.

What To Do

• If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
• Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
• Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
• All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
• Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.

Get more details at bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,9.221,120.015,6,internal

The 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, which has ended on November 30, was marked by tropical activity that churned busily from mid-August through October.

The season produced 18 named storms, including six hurricanes of which three were “major” (Category 3, 4 or 5). NOAA’s outlook called for 10-17 named storms, 5-9 hurricanes and 2-4 major hurricanes, and accurately predicted the overall activity of the season.

During each and every hurricane season, thousands of workers across the federal government coordinate with NOAA to safeguard Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes,” said U.S. Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “From advanced warnings to business aid, the Department of Commerce stands ready to help Americans from a storm’s formation to long after its dissipation.

This year marks the fourth consecutive above-normal Atlantic hurricane season. The only other period on record that produced four consecutive above-normal seasons was 1998-2001. Also this year, five tropical cyclones formed in the Gulf of Mexico, which ties a record with 2003 and 1957 for the most storms to form in that region. Of those, three — Barry, Imelda and Nestor — made landfall in the U.S.

NOAA provided around-the-clock support to communities before, during and after each tropical weather threat,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., acting NOAA administrator. “The expertise of our forecasters, coupled with upgrades like those to the Global Forecast System model and our next-generation environmental satellites, helped NOAA and its partners save lives and protect property all season long.

A graphic listing 2019 Atlantic tropical cyclone names selected by the World Meteorological Organization.The 18 named storms that formed are designated with a red slash through their name. They are listed in alphabetical order: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah and Sebastien.

The three major hurricanes this season were Dorian, Humberto and Lorenzo. Hurricane Dorian is tied with three other hurricanes — the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, 1988’s Hurricane Gilbert and 2005’s Hurricane Wilma — as the second strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin in terms of wind (185 mph).

In all, four storms made landfall in the U.S. during the 2019 season: Barry, Dorian, Imelda and Nestor.

This season’s activity ramped up in mid-August during the normal peak of the season, as we predicted,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “The above-normal activity is consistent with the ongoing high-activity era, driven largely by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which entered a warm phase in 1995. Conditions that favored more, stronger, and longer-lasting storms this year included a stronger West African monsoon, warmer Atlantic waters, and weak vertical wind shear across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.

An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season Summary

Hurricane response by the numbers

During the 2019 season, NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft and crews flew 57 missions over 430 hours, which along with the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of the Air Force Reserve, provided critical data that aided in storm forecasting and research.

In addition, NOAA’s King Air crew collected more than 26,939 aerial images covering more than 4,300 square miles of areas affected by Hurricane Dorian, including shoreline, ports and impacted inland areas of several Bahamian Islands to aid in emergency response.

NOAA and NOAA-supported researchers from the U.S. and Caribbean deployed 30 autonomous ocean glider missions in the Atlantic this season, which provided more than 75,000 observations of ocean temperature and salinity to operational hurricane forecast models. Ocean temperature and salinity data provide important clues about hurricane intensification.

Looking ahead

The 2020 hurricane season will officially begin on June 1 and NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will provide its initial seasonal outlook in May. Now is the time for families and communities to become Weather-Ready and prepare for the season ahead.

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