• Catastrophic effects of ‘unprecedented’ Australian bushfires

    photo:ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS; desc:Copernicus tracks catastrophic effects of ‘unprecedented’ Australian bushfires. Smoke plumes over New South Wales (left), Total Fire Radiative Power for New South Wales since 2003 (right).

    With the raging wildfires, widespread air quality issues, caused by very high surface particulate matter values, will affect many people over the coming days, latest Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service forecasts reveal.

    As significant numbers of bushfires burn in New South Wales and Queensland, Australia, the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), monitors their intensity and emissions. Data collected by CAMS shows that the fires are unprecedented when compared to the previous 16 years for New South Wales.

    CAMS, which is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts on behalf of the European Union, provides daily estimates of global fire emissions with its Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS), which assimilates fire radiative power (FRP) observations from satellite-based sensors.

    photo:ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS  ;desc:Daily Total Fire Radiative Power compared to the daily mean for 2003-2018 for Australia (left) and Western Australia (right).

    Recent satellite imagery shows massive smoke plumes over New South Wales and Queensland, turning day into night in some areas. The fires have even been burning in the kind of intensity never experienced before in places usually not seriously affected such as Northern New South Wales and tropical Queensland and according to scientists. Smoke from the fires has been transported beyond New Zealand and over the South Pacific Ocean with satellite observations showing that it may reach South America in coming days.

    photo:ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service CAMS  ;desc:Daily Total Fire Radiative Power for New South Wales (left), Daily Total Fire Radiative Power for Queensland compared to the daily mean for 2003-2018 (right).

    The monthly hydrological summaries of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), also implemented by ECMWF, showed August, September and October anomalies with high positive resp. dry values for eastern Australia, that are consistent with long-term drought conditions and are contributing to the current fire conditions. Most of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, particularly in Australia and the southern part of Africa are currently experiencing drier than usual conditions.

    Very high surface atmospheric particulate matter has also been causing air quality issues with New South Wales declaring a state of emergency in the wake of fires.

    photo:Windy.com;desc:Visualisation of PM2.5 over New South Wales using Windy shows the high particulate matter values in the region.;licence:cc;

    Fires, not only in Australia, but worldwide, can now be tracked by users of the App, Windy, which has added a new map “Active fires”. Input for the new layer is provided by the Copernicus Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) and displays the daily average of the fire radiative power (FRP).

    CAMS Senior Scientist, Mark Parrington, comments: “We have been closely monitoring the intensity of the fires and the smoke they emit and when comparing the results with the average from a 17-year period, they are very unusual in number and intensity, especially in New South Wales, for being so early in the fire season.”

    For further information visit atmosphere.copernicus.eu/global-fire-emissions

    https://www.windy.com/-PM2-5-pm2p5?cams,pm2p5,-32.584,150.073,5,internal

    posted in Articles
  • Copernicus Report: Precipitation, relative humidity and soil moisture for October 2019

    In October 2019 most of western and northern Europe experienced wetter than average conditions, whereas drier than average conditions prevailed in eastern Europe and the Mediterranean region. Japan experienced much above average precipitation related to Typhoon Hagibis, but severe dry conditions prevailed in the western USA, creating a favourable environment for wildfires in the region, and drier than average conditions prevailed in most of the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, particularly in Australia and the southern part of Africa.

    The surface hydrological variables are more difficult to observe and analyse than surface temperature. The data on soil moisture are currently of qualitative rather than quantitative value. This summary is intended to provide European and near-global views of conditions for the month. Specific information for many countries can be found on the websites of their weather or climate services.

    Europe - October 2019

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Anomalies in precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature for October 2019 with respect to October averages for the period 1981-2010. The darker grey shading denotes where soil moisture is not shown due to ice cover or climatologically low precipitation. Data source - ERA5

    In October 2019, wetter than average conditions prevailed over large parts of northern and western Europe, as indicated by above average precipitation, soil moisture and relative humidity compared to the 1981-2010 average. This was particularly true over a band encompassing the southern parts of Ireland and the UK, most of France, the Benelux, Germany and most regions around the Baltic Sea. Some areas in the northeast of Spain, south of France and northern Italy experienced very heavy rainfall towards the end of the month.

    Exceptions to the wetter-than-average northern and western Europe were Iceland and most of Norway, which saw drier than average conditions in general. In the south of France, soil moisture remained below average despite above average precipitation.

    Drier than average conditions also prevailed in most of the Mediterranean region, eastern Europe and around the Black Sea, where soil moisture in particular was much below average.

    Europe - Last 12 Months Hydrology Anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Anomalies in precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature for November 2018 to October 2019 with respect to 1981-2010. The darker grey shading denotes where soil moisture is not shown due to ice cover or climatologically low precipitation. Data source - ERA5

    For the last 12 months, ending in October 2019, most of Europe saw drier than average conditions, with above average temperature and all three hydrological indicators (precipitation, soil moisture and relative humidity) below their respective 1981-2010 average. During the same period, wetter than average conditions, marked by above average precipitation and soil moisture, prevailed only in eastern Iceland, Ireland, large parts of the UK, western and northern Scandinavia and northern Finland, and some regions along the Mediterranean Sea, including the southernmost parts of Italy, Greece and parts of Turkey. Some regions, such as the Alps, show mixed conditions.

    Globe - October 2019 Hydrological Anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Anomalies in precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air and the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil for October 2019 with respect to October averages for the period 1981-2010. The darker grey shading denotes where soil moisture is not shown due to ice cover or climatologically low precipitation. Data source - ERA5

    Beyond Europe, in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, October 2019 brought wetter than average conditions, with above average precipitation, soil moisture and relative humidity, to large parts of Canada, the northern USA, most of northern Siberia, parts of the middle east, Pakistan and northern India. Precipitation was above average also in the eastern USA and over Japan. Most notably, the latter was hit by typhoon Hagibis which brought large amounts of rain within a short period of time. Dry conditions prevailed over the western USA, where precipitation and even more so soil moisture were lower than average. This provided favourable conditions for the large wildfires that affected parts of California during October.

    In the extra-tropical southern hemisphere, drier than average conditions prevailed overall, as has been the case for several months in a row. Most below average were south-eastern Australia, southernmost Africa, as well as large parts of Argentina and Chile and southern Brazil. However, parts of Argentina saw above average precipitation.

    Globe - Last 12 Months Hydrological Anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Anomalies in precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air and the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil for November 2018 to October 2019 with respect to 1981-2010. The darker grey shading denotes where soil moisture is not shown due to ice cover or climatologically low precipitation. Data source - ERA5

    For the 12 months ending in October 2019, precipitation, soil moisture and relative humidity were below average (indicating generally dry conditions) within a belt stretching eastwards from Europe across large parts of Asia. This dry belt includes most of the regions to the north and east of the Black and Caspian Seas, as well as some parts of central Asia, Russia, Mongolia and northern China.

    Southern Africa and Australia experienced much drier than average conditions, strengthening severe drought conditions. The exception is the remarkable extreme rainfall in Queensland during the past March, whose imprint is still visible in the 12-month average. Furthermore, in the southern and central parts of South America, conditions were drier than average.

    On the contrary, precipitation and relative humidity were higher than average over most of the Middle East, central and eastern China. Generally wet conditions marked by above average precipitation, soil moisture and relative humidity prevailed in southern and eastern USA, Alaska, eastern Canada and central Argentina.

    Longer term trends

    Monthly Global humidity anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Monthly anomalies with respect to 1981-2010 in the relative humidity of surface air averaged over all and European land areas, from January 1979 to October 2019. The darker coloured bars denote the October values. Data source - ERA5

    Relative humidity averaged over all land areas globally has decreased over the last forty years and has remained below its 1981-2010 average since the early 2000s. The average relative humidity for October 2019 was also below average, but not by a particularly large amount.

    Relative humidity averaged over Europe as a whole is more variable, but in general also shows a net decline over time. Relative humidity for October 2019 in Europe was slightly below average.

    The observed drying is not associated with an appreciable reduction in precipitation, as shown below for four European regions. It may be a consequence of a period in which surface air temperature rose faster over land than it did over sea.

    Continued monitoring is required to document behaviour over a longer period and refine the understanding of this aspect of climate variability or change.

    The variation over time of the hydrological variables and temperature are shown below for averages over land areas for NW, NE, SW and SE Europe. Values are averaged over successive four-month periods in order to highlight variations on seasonal and longer time scales.

    Regional differences are quite pronounced in the time series. Average precipitation rates are higher in the north, particularly the NW, but precipitation is more variable in the southern regions. This is partly a consequence of the smaller areas of the southern regions or the four-month averaging. Warming is largest in the NE, but the decrease in relative humidity is larger in the south.

    The correlations between precipitation, relative humidity and soil moisture, evident in the maps of anomalies, can be seen to hold for the area averages on time scales up to a year or more. However, average precipitation does not show the marked longer-term decrease seen for relative humidity and soil moisture.

    The four months to October 2019 saw somewhat drier than average conditions for NW and SW Europe with average precipitation, below average soil moisture and relative humidity and above average temperature.

    The same four months saw drier than average conditions for NE and SE Europe with below average precipitation, soil moisture and relative humidity and above average temperature.

    NW Europe Hydro Anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Running four-month averages of anomalies over land areas for NW Europe with respect to 1981-2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to October 2019. The annual averages for 1981-2010 are shown in the top right corner of each panel. Data source - ERA5

    NE Europe Hydro Anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Running four-month averages of anomalies over land areas for NE Europe with respect to 1981-2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to October 2019. The annual averages for 1981-2010 are shown in the top right corner of each panel. Data source - ERA5

    SW Europe Hydro Anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Running four-month averages of anomalies over land areas for SW Europe with respect to 1981-2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to October 2019. The annual averages for 1981-2010 are shown in the top right corner of each panel. Data source - ERA5

    SE Europe Hydro Anomalies

    photo:Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF;desc:Running four-month averages of anomalies over land areas for SE Europe with respect to 1981-2010 for precipitation, the relative humidity of surface air, the volumetric moisture content of the top 7 cm of soil and surface air temperature, based on monthly values from January 1979 to October 2019. The annual averages for 1981-2010 are shown in the top right corner of each panel.

    posted in Articles
  • RE: UK distances

    You can easily change units by clicking the color scale at bottom right corner of the page.

    Screenshot 2019-11-12 at 19.08.31.png

    To preserve your settings (works across devices too), log into your account and change the units in the settings.

    posted in Your feedback and Suggestions
  • RE: Your map uploads

    Europe (Global Heat Flow Database)

    https://www.windy.com/upload/5dcac72e0879440019947cbf

    _center_shadow


    Upload your own KML, GPX, GeoJSON file at https://www.windy.com/uploader

    posted in General Discussion
  • Copernicus report: Smallest ozone hole in 35 years has closed early

    Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) reveals unusually small ozone hole closed much earlier than in previous years

    photo:ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

    The smallest Antarctic ozone hole to appear in 35 years made an unusually early disappearance, according to scientists from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) who have been monitoring its activity since August. CAMS is implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Union.

    The ozone hole forms annually over Antarctica during southern spring. This year it was smaller than average and has now virtually disappeared, according to the CAMS data. Most years, the ozone hole starts to appear in August, reaching a maximum size in October before finally closing again in late November to December. Its early closure at the beginning of November is unusual.

    CAMS scientists noticed that the 2019 ozone hole did not grow as rapidly during late August than in previous years. “A sudden stratospheric warming over Antarctica led to a less stable and warmer polar vortex than usual, resulting in reduced ozone depletion,” explains CAMS Senior Scientist Antje Inness. This made the 2019 ozone hole one of the smallest since the mid-1980s and resulted in an unusually short ozone hole season.

    photo:ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS);desc:Timeline of Southern Hemisphere ozone hole area in million km² in different years.

    “The facts that the 2019 ozone hole has been exceptionally small and that it closed early are no indication that the ozone layer is recovering faster than expected. It simply illustrates the very large variability of ozone holes from one year to another. The healing of the ozone layer will still take several decades and the international monitoring efforts of ozone and ODS play a crucial role in making sure that we keep on the right track,” comments Vincent-Henri Peuch, Head of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).

    The ozone layer protects all life on Earth from harmful solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation. In the late 20th century, human emissions of Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS), such as Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC), adversely affected the ozone layer, resulting in annual ozone depletion events (“holes”) over Polar regions.

    CAMS monitors and forecasts ozone hole activity by combining measurements from satellite with a numerical model to provide quality-assured information about the state of the ozone layer - in a similar way to weather forecasts. Thereby, CAMS contributes to international efforts to preserve the ozone layer by continually monitoring and delivering high quality data about its current state.

    photo:ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS);desc:Total column ozone analysis (in Dobson Units) from CAMS on 5 November 2019 (left) and 5-day forecast for the same day (right) showing how well CAMS predicted the ozone hole closure.

    The ozone hole first appeared decades ago, caused by harmful man-made emissions into the atmosphere of chemicals arising from aerosols, refrigerants, pesticides and solvents. However, the 1987 Montreal Protocol has been signed by 196 states and the European Union, within which the main ozone-depleting chemicals were phased out. This worldwide action has led to the gradual repair of the ozone layer and ozone values are expected to return to pre-1980s levels by 2060.

    More information and a 3D animation of the current status of the ozone hole is available on the CAMS website.

    How the Antarctic ozone hole is formed

    Chlorine and bromine-containing substances accumulate within the polar vortex where they remain chemically inactive in the darkness. Temperatures in the vortex can fall to below -78 degrees Celsius and Polar stratospheric clouds can form, which play an important part in the chemical reactions. As the sun rises over the pole, chemically-active chlorine and bromine atoms are released in the vortex and rapidly destroy ozone molecules, causing the hole to form.

    In 2019, the polar vortex was unusually warm and was also weaker than normal allowing more mixing with ozone-rich air from outside the vortex. These two effects limited the extent of ozone destruction during September and October 2019 over Antarctica.

    photo:ECMWF Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS);desc:Monthly mean total column ozone anomaly for October 2019 (left), monthly mean total column ozone for October 2019 (centre) and October ozone climatology (right) showing how anomalously high ozone values over the South Pole were in October 2019. Ozone columns are given in Dobson Units and the climatology was calculated as mean over the years 2003-2018 from the CAMS reanalysis of atmospheric composition.

    posted in Articles
  • All you need to know about the weather business in 15 minutes

    Recent question about the 30 days forecast in the Windy community forum reminded me about a month old episode of the John Oliver show on HBO.

    In that episode, besides crushing politicians, Oliver provided nice recap of how weather business works and how important is a role of the paid-by-taxes government agencies like NWS/NOAA in US, or Copernicus (ECMWF) here in Europe.

    Great news is that HBO made whole weather section available for anyone to watch on the show's YouTube channel. Worth watching, insightful and funny as hell :)

    https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,13.667,81.475,5,internal

    posted in Articles
  • RE: 30 days forecast ?

    @Tomber42 or follow the show of this weatherman (15:10) :)

    posted in Your Feedback and Suggestions
  • RE: 30 days forecast ?

    The weather is very complex system and 30 days is way too much more than what the weather models can predict, anything more than 10 days is simply unreliable or pure BS. Even the 5-10 days forecast should be taken as a prediction that will be updated on the next model's run and will probably change more or less. Windy is a service that "only" visualises leading forecast models' output.

    posted in Your Feedback and Suggestions
  • NASA satellite imagery finds Typhoon Halong resembles a boxing glove

    Typhoon Halong has packed quite a punch and imagery from NASA’s Terra satellite found that the storm resembled a boxing glove.

    photo:NASA Worldview;desc:On Nov. 7, the MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra satellite took this image of Typhoon Halong and it resembled a boxing glove from space.

    On Nov. 7, NASA’s Terra satellite passed over the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard captured a visible image of Halong. The MODIS image showed powerful thunderstorms circling the center of circulation and a band of thunderstorms northeast of center. Combined, the storm looked like a boxing glove from space with the “thumb” as the band of storms that curved to the east of the center. Satellite imagery using microwaves revealed that there is an eye under that large area of thunderstorms circling the center.

    At 10 a.m. EST (1500 UTC) on Nov. 7, the center of Typhoon Halong was located near latitude 24.8 degrees north and longitude 152.2 degrees east. That puts the center about 110 nautical miles west of Minami Tori Shima, Japan. Maximum sustained winds were near 90 knots (104 mph/167 kph).

    The Joint Typhoon Warning Center or JTWC noted, “Halong will accelerate poleward [north] while gradually turning northeastward to east-northeastward. The environment will become more unfavorable with increasing vertical wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures.” That means the storm will experience a weakening trend and after a day, the storm is expected to start transitioning into an extra-tropical storm.

    Typhoons and hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

    By Rob Gutro
    NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

    https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,13.176,142.163,5,internal

    posted in Articles
  • Satellite Imagery: Super Typhoon Halong Finally Weakening

    Super Typhoon Halong has finally peaked in intensity and is now on a weakening trend. NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP satellite passed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean and provided a look at the storm.

    photo:On Nov. 6, 2019, the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’s Suomi NPP provided a visible image of Super Typhoon Halong that showed the storm still maintained an eye and powerful bands of thunderstorms circling it, despite weakening slightly.

    On Nov. 5, Halong was a powerful Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. When the Suomi NPP satellite passed overhead on Nov. 6 the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard provided a visible image of the storm, after it had weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm. The VIIRS imagery showed bands of thunderstorms wrapping into the 10 nautical-mile wide eye.

    At 10 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC) on Nov. 6 (or 1 a.m. CHST on Nov. 7) the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam noted the eye of Super Typhoon Halong was located near latitude 22.0 degrees north and longitude 150.8 degrees rast. That puts the center of Halong about 255 miles southwest of Minamitorishima, 420 miles northeast of Pagan, 580 miles northeast of Saipan, and 710 miles northeast of Guam.

    Halong was moving north-northeast at 6 mph. Halong is expected to maintain this north-northeast heading through Thursday, Nov. 7, with a gradual increase in forward speed. By Saturday, Nov. 9, Halong is forecast to move toward the east-northeast at a faster pace.

    Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 155 mph. A Category 4 hurricane contains sustained winds between 130 and 156 mph (113 and 136 knots/209 and 251 kph). Typhoon force winds extend outward from the eye up to 35 miles and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 145 miles southeast of the center and up to 105 miles elsewhere.

    Halong is forecast to weaken further today with a steady weakening trend expected to commence Friday, Nov. 8. On Nov. 8 upper-level winds are forecast to begin to affect the typhoon as Halong moves over cooler sea surface temperatures. Both of those factors are expected to help the storm transition into an extra-tropical cyclone.

    Hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

    For updated forecasts, Visit: https://www.weather.gov/gum/Cyclones

    By Rob Gutro
    NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

    https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,13.176,142.163,5,internal

    posted in Articles