Tropical Cyclone WARNING Issued at 11:00 am, 03 December 2019 (Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin to be issued at 2:00 pm today.)

"TISOY" made landfall over Marinduque at 8:30 AM today.

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

• Between morning and late afternoon today: Frequent to continuous heavy to intense rains over Romblon, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, CALABARZON, Metro Manila, Bataan, Pampanga and Bulacan. Occasional to frequent heavy rains over Bicol Region and the rest of Central Luzon. Intermittent heavy rains over Aklan, Antique, Capiz, and the northern portions of Negros Provinces.
• Between late afternoon today and tomorrow morning: Frequent to continuous heavy (with isolated intense) rains over Mindoro Provinces, Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Rizal, and Northern Quezon including Polillo Islands. Occasional heavy rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, Marinduque, Romblon and the rest of CALABARZON. Intermittent heavy rains over Calamian Islands.
• Residents in the aforementioned areas, especially those living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to flooding and rain-induced landslides, are advised to take appropriate actions, coordinate with local disaster risk reduction and management offices, and continue monitoring for updates, especially the Thunderstorm or Rainfall Advisories and Heavy Rainfall Warnings to be issued by PAGASA Regional Services Divisions.

Other Hazards and Information

• Forecast storm surge: up to 3 meters over several coastal areas in Batangas, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, Romblon, Cavite, and Batangas. For more information, refer to Storm Surge Warning #8 issued at 8 AM today.
• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals over Ifugao, Mountain Province, Northern Cebu, Bohol, northern Negros Oriental, Eastern Samar and the rest of Samar are now lifted.
• Sea travel is risky, especially for small seacrafts, over the seaboards of areas under TCWS, the seaboards of Northern Luzon, the western seaboard of Palawan, the seaboards of Visayas, and the northern and eastern seaboards of Mindanao due to rough sea conditions
• Gusty conditions may also be experienced in areas in Northern Luzon that are not under any TCWS (especially in the coastal and mountainous zones) due to the Northeast Monsoon.

Location of Eye/center

At 10:00 AM today, the eye of Typhoon "TISOY" was located based on all available data at 55 km East of Calapan City, Oriental Mindoro (13.4 °N, 121.7 °E )

Movement

Moving West at 25 kph

Strength

Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center and gustiness of up to 205 kph

Typhoon Tisoy (Kammuri) Forecast Track

Forecast Position

• 24 Hour(Tomorrow morning): 280 km West Southwest of Subic, Zambales(14.2°N, 117.8°E)
• 48 Hour(Thursday morning):615 km West of Subic, Zambales (OUTSIDE PAR)(14.9°N, 114.6°E)
• 72 Hour(Friday morning): 730 km West of Coron, Palawan (OUTSIDE PAR)(12.1°N, 113.5°E)

Areas with Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 3

Luzon

• Burias Islands
• Romblon
• southern portion of Quezon (Perez
• Alabat
• Quezon
• Mauban
• Sampaloc
• Lucban
• Tayabas
• Pagbilao
• Lucena
• Sariaya
• Candelaria
• Dolores
• Tiaong
• San Antonio
• Atimonan
• Padre Burgos
• Agdangan
• Plaridel
• Unisan
• Pitogo
• Gumaca
• Lopez
• Macalelon
• General Luna
• Calauag
• Catanauan
• Guinayangan
• Tagkawayan
• Buenavista
• Mulanay
• San Narciso
• San Francisco
• San Andres)
• Marinduque
• Oriental Mindoro
• Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island
• Batangas
• Cavite
• Laguna

Visayas

• —

Mindanao

• —

Meteorological Condition

• A tropical cyclone will affect the locality.
• Winds of greater than 121 kph up to 170 kph may be expected in at least 18 hours.

Impact of the Wind

• Many coconut trees may be broken or destroyed.
• Almost all banana plants may be downed and a large number of trees may be uprooted.
• Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses.
• Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed and there may be considerable damage to structures of light to medium construction.
• There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
• In general, moderate to heavy damage may be experienced, particularly in the agricultural and industrial sectors.

Precautionary Measures

• The disturbance is dangerous to the communities threatened/affected.
• The sea and coastal waters will be very dangerous to all seacrafts.
• Travel is very risky especially by sea and air.
• People are advised to seek shelter in strong buildings, evacuate low-lying areas and to stay away from the coasts and river banks.
• Watch out for the passage of the "eye" of the typhoon indicated by a sudden occurrence of fair weather immediately after very bad weather with very strong winds coming gnerally from the north.
• When the "eye" of the typhoon hit the community do not venture away from the safe shelter because after one to two hours the worst weather will resume with the very strong winds coming from the south.
• Classes in all levels should be suspended and children should stay in the safety of strong buildings.
• Disaster preparedness and response agencies/organizations are in action with appropriate response to actual emergency.

What To Do

• If the house is not strong enough to withstand the battering of strong winds go to designated evacuation center aor seek shelter in stronger houses.
• Stay in safe houses until after the disturbances has left the area.
• Evacuate from low-lying area and reiverbanks and stay away from coastal areas for possible flooding and strom surge.
• All travel and outdoor activities should be cancelled.
• Watch out for the passage of the "Eye Wall and the "Eye" of the typhoon.

Get more details at bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,9.221,120.015,6,internal

As of 21:00 UTC December 2, Typhoon Kammuri (Tisoy) is located near 13.1°N 122.7°E, also about 166 nautical miles (305 km; 190 mi) east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum 10-minute sustained winds are at 90 knots (165 km/h; 105 mph), while maximum 1-minute sustained winds are at 105 knots (195 km/h; 120 mph), with gusts up to 130 knots (240 km/h; 150 mph). The minimum central barometric pressure is 950 hPa (28.05 inHg), and the system is moving westward at 13 kn (24 km/h; 15 mph).

Since Kammuri has now entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility, defined by the World Meteorological Organization, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), it has been assigned a parallel name of “Tisoy.” The rational is that it is felt that Filipinos will respond more to familiar names and that it helps to underscore that these named weather disturbances pose a direct threat to the country.

However, for the purposes of these discussions, the international recognized name designated by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo –Kammuri–will be used.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) continues to track Kammuri in order to assess the impacts on the various islands in the path of the storm. In anticipation of the storm, PAGASA has continued to issue flood alerts to various locations. This is especially important due to the fact most of the population is along the coast and in low-lying areas.

NASA-NOAA’s S-NPP satellite saw Typhoon Kammuri on Nov. 30 at 1:04 p.m. EST (1604 UTC) on the extreme western side of the pass for the satellite. Imagery continued to show a large central dense overcast (CDO) that would obscure the low-level circulation.

The CDO of a tropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center. It is caused by the formation of its eyewall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irregular.

Several prominent features in the CDO include tropospheric gravity waves along with multiple overshooting tops. In addition, while this normally would be in the “noisy” part of the scene for the Day Night Band on S-NPP, there was still enough signal from the airglow (the moon was at waxing crescent with 16% illumination) to see mesospheric gravity waves along with a single lone lightning streak within the CDO. Infrared data revealed temperatures of cloud tops were as cold as 119 Kelvin (minus 117.6 degrees Fahrenheit/minus 83.1 degrees Celsius).

On Dec. 2, visible imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Terra satellite showed that Kammuri’s eye continued to be covered by clouds. The western quadrant of Kammuri was already over the eastern central Philippines.

On Dec. 2, 2019 at 4 a.m. EST (0900 UTC) Typhoon Kammuri (Tisoy in the Philippines) was located near latitude 13.0 degrees north, and longitude 125.6 degrees east, about 285 nautical miles east-southeast of Manila, Philippines. Kammuri (Tisoy) is moving west and had maximum sustained winds 105 knots (121 mph/193 kph).

At 7 a.m. EST (1200), PAGASA raised 3 warning signals on Dec. 2. Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal number 3 is in effect for Luzon: Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, southern portion of Camarines Norte, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, Romblon, and southern portion of Quezon. In the central Philippines, it is in effect for the region of Visayas: Northern Samar, northern portion of Eastern Samar (Can-avid, Dolores, Maslog, Oras, Arteche, Jipapad, San Policarpio), and northern portion of Samar.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal number 2 is in effect in the northern Philippines for the region of Luzon: Metro Manila, Bulacan, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, southern Aurora, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, rest of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, rest of Camarines Norte, Calamian Islands, southern portion of Zambales, In Visayas the signal covers: the rest of Eastern Samar, rest of Samar, Biliran, Aklan, Capiz, northern portion of Antique, northern portion of Iloilo, northern portion of Negros Occidental, Northern Cebu, and northern portion of Leyte.

Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal number 1 is in effect in the northern Philippines for the region of Luzon: Southern Isabela, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Nueva Vizcaya, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Quirino, rest of Aurora, and rest of Zambales. In Visayas: Rest of Antique, rest of Iloilo, Guimaras, rest of Negros Occidental, Metro Cebu, rest Leyte, and Southern Leyte. And in the region of Mindanao it is in effect for: Dinagat Islands and Siargao Island

Kammuri is moving in a westerly direction as it approaches the eastern Philippines.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects that the storm will strengthen slightly today, Dec. 2, but will then start to weaken. The typhoon is then expected to turn east-northeast as it passes through the Philippine archipelago, but will then veer southwest, weaken and dissipate.

For updated forecasts from PAGASA, visit www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

William Straka III/ Rob Gutro
University of Wisconsin – Madison-SSEC-CIMSS
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Related content

• The latest Typhoon Kammuri (Tisoy) updates
• What is a tropical cyclone

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,7.264,120.410,6,internal

Visible, infrared and microwave imagery from NASA satellites help forecasters understand if a storm is organizing or weakening. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA’S Suomi NPP provided an infrared and nighttime image of Kammuri on Nov. 28 at 1:39 p.m. EST (1639 UTC) that shows it is consolidating and strengthening. The circulation was obscured by the central dense overcast or CDO. CDO is a large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eyewall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irregular in shape.

Suomi NPP found a noticeable increase in the size of the CDO, perhaps an indication of some strengthening of the storm.

William Straka III, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, Space Science and Engineering Center’s Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies used the satellite data to create imagery. Straka said, “Collocated observations of the location of the CDO and microwave imagery are important to help measure the intensity of a tropical cyclone, by seeing how far the center of circulation is within the storm and the temperature difference in the cloud tops in the CDO. Since microwave imagers can see ‘into the cloud,’ this helps in determining the location of the tropical system.”

Straka also noted “However, an important thing to note is that the circulation in one satellite channel is not completely surrounded by the convection.”

At 7 p.m. CHST, local time, Guam (4 a.m. EST/0900 UTC) on Nov. 29, the National Weather Service in Tiyan, Guam noted that the center of typhoon Kammuri was located near latitude 14.5 degrees north and longitude 137.3 degrees east. That puts the eye of Kammuri about 350 miles north-northwest of Ulithi, 350 miles north of Yap, 395 miles north-northwest of Fais and 505 miles west of Guam.

Kammuri is moving west-northwest at 7 mph. It is expected to make a turn toward the west-southwest with a slight increase in forward speed over the next 24 hours. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph. Kammuri is forecast to maintain this intensity through Saturday, Nov. 30. Typhoon force winds extend outward from the center up to 35 miles. Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the Center up to 145 miles.

The forecast track for Kammuri takes the storm due west toward the Philippines. The forecast from Joint Typhoon Warning Center has Kammuri intensifying to about 125 knots (144 mph/232 kph) by December 1, 2019, which would be the equivalent to a Category 4 storm in the Atlantic. The storm is expected to make landfall in the central and northern Philippines on Dec. 3.

Typhoons and hurricanes are the most powerful weather event on Earth. NASA’s expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For updated forecasts visit weather.gov/gum/Cyclones

Rob Gutro
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center

Related content

• The latest Typhoon Kammuri (Tisoy) updates
• What is a tropical cyclone

https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,6.948,131.704,5,internal