Cyclone Kyarr coverage
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Tropical cyclone Kyarr, which has evolved in the Arabian Sea in the last week, has not impacted any area. However, it will remain as the most powerful cyclone observed for 12 years in this part of the North Indian Ocean. With an intensity of 135 kt according to the JTWC, Kyarr is one of the most intense cyclones of 2019 in the world. 2019 will probably be one of the most intense cyclonic seasons in the history of North Indian Ocean history.
Update : Latest update of New Delhi RSMC. Kyarr weakened into a Cyclonic Storm. At 0300 UTC of 31 october, the center was located near 18.0°N and 60.2°E, about 1330 km west southwest of Mumbai (India), 670 KM East-northeast of Salalah (Oman) and 320 km South-southeast of Masirah (Oman). It is very likely to move southwestward across westcentral Arabian sea during next 3 Days according New Delhi. The closest approach of Socotra is expected Saturday. An other tropical storm named Maha is under surveillance in the Southeast of Arabian sea.
Update : Kyarr weakened into a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm which is the equivalent of a category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. It was centered over westcentral and north Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 30th October, 2019 near latitude 19.6°N and longitude 62.3°E, about 1100 km westnorthwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra), 930 km east-northeast of Salalah (Oman) and 370 km eastsoutheast of Masirah (Oman) according RSMC New Delhi. Kyarr should gradually change track by turning westward and then southwestward over the next 24 to 36 hours. Landfall over Arabian Peninsula now seems excluded. On this track, the system will move toward Socotra while weakening. It expected to pass near or over the island during this weekend according.
Update: The system that has demonstrated power by becoming the first Super Cyclone observed in the Arabian Sea since Gonu (2007), begins to weaken. Latest satellite data shows signs of degradation. The eye loses in definition, the top cloud warm up and an intrusion of dry air seems visible on the water vapor data. The trend is now weakening, as confirmed by the SATCON automatic intensity estimate which suggests a decrease. Human agencies (New Delhi CMRS & JTWC) are in good agreement. The northwest track will gradually turn toward westward and finally southwestward. Landfall over the Arabian Peninsula is therefore less and less likely. On this track, the system should move closer to Socotra and the Gulf of Aden over the next few days. However, New Delhi and the Navy are at a loss for future intensity. In the RSMC scenario, Kyarr would weaken so fast that it would be nothing more than a low when approaching Socotra. On the contrary, JTWC suggest a system still sufficiently strong approaching the Yemeni island. The threat level for the regions mentioned above will depend on the intensity of the system beyond the next 48 hours which is currently very uncertain.
Previous Kyarr coverage
Kyarr became Sunday 27th an impressive Super Cyclonic Storm, which corresponds to the top of the intensity scale in the North Indian Ocean. The future of the cyclone is very uncertain.
The system took full advantage of the favorable environmental conditions to become a Super Cyclonic Storm, which represents the top of the intensity scale in the North Indian Ocean. According to the JTWC, the max sustained winds were estimated at 135 kt, which is the equivalent of a violent hurricane at the limit of the category 4/5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Such intensity is rarely observed in the Arabian Sea. The last Super Cyclonic Storm to have evolved in this part of the North Indian Ocean was Gonu during the 2007 cyclone season. This 2019 hurricane season is likely to enter the category of very active. If only 4 storms were nammed (Fani, Vayu, Hikaa and Kyarr), all reach tropical cyclone intensity. The accumulated cyclonic energy of this season should be very high!
Cyclone Chaser 2.0, I am passionate about these phenomena and I share my passion on my blog cycloneoi.com