MetoBlue wildly inaccurate in the SW usa

[stevecrye]

Simply put, MB is never correct. Not only is it wrong when compared with actual observations, it's always in disagreement with other models, not just GFS, ECMWF, NAM, but also OP40, ICON, and HRRR.

Just saying..

[jmh2002]

Windy does not create any forecast data but instead only visualises forecast and actual data received from various third party providers.

[stevecrye]

@jmh2002 Sure, I understand that. (I've been a Windy user from the early days) .
My point was purely informational. MeteoBlue is not accurate for the SW USA. Other models, for example HRRR , might be a better addition to the Big Three (NAM, GFS, ECMWF)

[meteoblue]

according to our operational verification using over 40 000 stations. Our meteoblue AI still has an error that is about half as large of any other existing model for the variables of Temperature, wind and humidity, which are the ones we can verify easily with stations.This is also true for the US.

it is clear that due to different topographies, resolutions used in the models you can easily find points were models do not agree on wind directions, and that is a good thing…. in less than a minute I e.g. found these:

obviously due to these differences you will find locations where one or the other model has better wind direction, that is why we use over 30 different models (including our own weather forecast models) and all show them on meteoblue in our large model comparison:

you can check those for any location here:

For wind direction we do not yet make an AI forecast (almost no demand) and most measurements (especially) amateur stations cannot be used for this due to wrong placement, (not 10m altitude and many local obstacles close to the stations). But we will probably also make a consensus forecast of wind direction in the future.

[ivo]

@meteoblue So happy to have Meteoblue in our community. Welcome!!!!

[ivo]

I am from Europe and I must confirm that in Europe and mostly in Alps, Meteoblue has no competition regrading temperatures or wind.

As of clouds and precipitation ECMWF is leader

[idefix37]

@meteoblue

I often use the Multimodel page of Meteoblue.
What you call Meteoblue AI, is it the models average that appears in dotted line on the temperature diagram and that of the wind speed on this page?
Does Windy use Meteoblue AI data? It seems to me that Windy only uses data from your modified NEMS model. In this case, if Windy does not use the Meteoblue AI data, it is not unusual to find larger errors with Meteoblue on Windy.

[meteoblue]

@idefix37
The meteoblue AI produces a consensus forecast. That is the forecast you see on our main page, or in every product seen on our page that only shows one forecast. The model average shown in the multimodel is just the average, which is most of the time very different from the AI consensus. Windy shows the AI consensus when our forecast API is used. I believe this is in the timeline local forecasts of windy, but definetly not on the maps and likely also not when you pick data from the maps by mouseclick (but not sure about this last point). The AI takes into consideration many very local factors at very high resolution, so that we do not produce a gridded AI forecast that could be plotted on a map.

[jmh2002]

THANKS! @meteoblue for joining us here at the Windy Community forum.

Your professional input is most appreciated.

[idefix37]

@meteoblue
Thanks for reply. It’s clear now. It explains why there may be differences between the map or the weather picker and the local forecasts diagram. It would also be worth to have Meteoblue AI on the diagrams of your Multimodel page.

[KdeK]

@stevecrye Hi! I saw this post by you after trying to crunch some numbers with MB data and then comparing with other sources and, you are so correct, MB seems to be off from other sources for daily high and low. What would be a good historical source for basic weather data?