Tropical Cyclone Belna updates
pavelneuman last edited by pavelneuman
Update: At 9:00 p.m. UTC, the center of Tropical Cyclone Belna (02S) was located near 17.0S 44.7E, approx. 430 NM northeast of Europa Island, and has tracked south-southwestward at 9 knots (kts) over the past six hours. Animated Enhanced Infrared (EIR) satellite imagery reveals a 125 NM central dense overcast feature and radial outflow located over northern Madagascar.
Around 1:30 p.m. UTC, Tropical Cyclone Belna formed a small eye and underwent a brief period of intensification prior to landfall. However, by 4:00 p.m. UTC, the eye filled. The initial position is set with good confidence based on turning in the eir imagery supported by an extrapolation of the microwave eye feature observed in a 3:23 p.m. SSMIS 91 ghz microwave image.
The initial intensity is set at 75 kts based on the weakening convective structure of the system due to land interaction. The system remains in a favorable environment of good radial outflow and low (5-10 kt) vertical wind shear (VWS).
Belna is tracking along the western periphery of a subtropical ridge (STR) to the east. In the near-term, TC Belna will track south-southwest along the coastline as it continues to weaken. The system is expected to briefly track over coastal waters with sea surface temperatures of 28-30 celsius, which may allow for a short period of slight intensification.
Between TAUs 24 and 36, the system will round the STR axis and turn to a southeastward track for the remainder of the forecast period. land interaction with the terrain of Madagascar will cause Belna to dissipate. Notably, a remnant circulation may track off of Madagascar and emerge over the southern Indian Ocean.
The JTWC track forecast is placed to the east of multi-model consensus to offset a western outlier (UKMET ensemble). Overall, the models are in good agreement with a model spread of 97 NM at TAU 48, lending fair confidence to the JTWC track forecast (Warning #11).
- Update We've uploaded the latest JTWC forecast cone. Click here to view the latest TC Belna cone (warning #11) on any Windy layer.
Previous Belna coverage
Tropical Cyclone Belna has made landfall near town of Soalala in northern Madagascar. Belna was strengthening in the last several hours with winds of 90 mph (145 km/h), gusting to 115 mph (185 km/h), with a pressure of 978 mb. Rapid weakening is expected over land.
Although Belna is small in size, the areas along the northwestern coast could see damaging winds, heavy rain, flooding and storm surge. Moisture from the storm could also fuel heavy rain in other parts of the country.
Landfall of Tropical Cyclone Belna
Tropical Cyclone Belna Satellite Imagery