Should "Thunderstorms" units have a "/day" added here (see image)?
jonwilloughby last edited by
@jonwilloughby Hi, you are right, see: https://apps.ecmwf.int/codes/grib/param-db?id=228057
But to be honest, these numbers probably do not fit with real lightning count in the specific storm.
According to https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/155/meteorology/promising-results-lightning-predictions , part "Lightning parametrization", the result is normalized by constant α "where α is a tunable coefficient, currently set to 37.5 to match the annual global mean flash rate". So it is expectable that forecasted annual lightning count may be correct, but in the specific storm? who knows...
Nevertheless the Thunderstorm forecast is not intended for calculating flashes, but to predict locality, probability and severity of storms. And as you can see on case of Crew Dragon launch, the boys from ECMWF predicted that storm very well :-)