Inaccurate Current Weather



  • I noticed lately windy passed on future forecase as current weather data and the wind data they show are HIGHLY inaccurate.

    I am in Asia and was minoring the typhoons and was surprised to find Windy reported one storm that is bound to hit Korea over weekend, shows it has already landed and moved across S and N Korea and into china at the current time. Also wind speeds are WAYYY off. My local observatory shows a max wind speed of over 185km/h and windy only shows max of 85km/h, well over 100km/h difference.

    I guess windy shows the forecast....but I mean i expect it to be somewhat accurate with the CURRENT weather.


  • Sailor

    @disaster999
    Do you understand that Windy is showing what the global weather models are PREDICTING ? Windy does not show the current weather unless you select Reported wind or Reported temperature which gives the observed parameters by weather stations.
    Then it is well known that global models like ECMWF model and GFS are not able to predict the exact wind force of a hurricane or a typhoon:
    https://community.windy.com/topic/4415/why-is-wind-speed-in-hurricanes-so-wrong
    So if you expect somewhat more in accordance with current weather you should send your claim to the ECMWF and to the NOAA.


  • Meteorologist

    @disaster999
    I would like to add 2 comments :

    1. as @idefix37 and I already highlighted couple of times, Windy doesn’t make any weather forecast model, Windy doesn’t do any calculations with the models, Windy only publishes the data coming from several models and present those data in a very nice and useful interface. Therefore, Windy has no responsibility regarding the accuracy of the data. Only the institutes making the models have this responsibility. Having said that, it is also the responsibility of the user to study the different models and determine which one is the most appropriated for the location and for what he or she is expectating as accuracy. It is also key not to mix the concept of a FORECAST and CURRENT weather. Do not look at models to check the CURRENT weather but check then weather stations or satellite images.
    2. In general, severe and local phenomena are still difficult to be modelized by the current models. It is the case for instance for thunderstorms. The reason behind this issue has a name : convection. Convection unfortunately do break one fundamental assumption used by all models : hydrostatism. At synoptic level, atmosphere is stable and this is what hydrostatism is telling. Convection, locally, creates an air circulation starting from the bottom, from the ground or from the see, to the altitude. Therefore, atmosphere is not stable anymore and we are locally in a non hydrostatism assumption which is not yet well modelized by the models even if they did a lot of improvement, especially Arome. While it is easy to predict that a region will have all ingredients to get potentially a thunderstorm, it is very complicated for all models to be accurate enough to tell you the exact localisation of the thunderstorm, the exact timing and the exact intensity (wind speed, rainfall, hail,...). More severe phenomena, as hurricanes, have the same issue for more or less the same type of reason.

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