A medicane ...
... may form over Ionian Sea on Fri. 18 Sep.
according to ICON.
For Medicanes see
Model's uncertainties ...
Different tracks for ECMWF and ICON
may result different rain accumulations.
e.g. for Athens, Greece
ECMWF forecasts 214 mm for the next 5 days
while ICON expects only 2 mm !!!
We will keep on watching and after 5 days we'll know which model forecasted better that situation!
Very interesting situation that I follow carefully as well. Indeed, models don’t give yet the same scenario. A lot of things can also happen in the meantime. For instance, if there is cold air coming in the upper altitude, that will cut the development of the medicane and it could strongly be reduced in intensity.
It seems also that Crete will not be really affected, if direction stays as it is.
Today (17 Sep) forecast tracks (based on ECMWF and ICON)
are in good agreement.
It seems that the cyclone will affect the western coast of Greece
(south from Preveza/Lefkas island).
Rain accumulation (3 days)
Finally, all models, including ICON, are in agreement for the trajectory.
Unless something happens which could lead to a destructuration of this medicane, it will hit Greece tomorrow and later North of Crete followed by Turkey.
I am a bit surprised that they don’t talk that much in the news abouth this medicane although this is a very severe event,...
One of the typical feature of a medicane is the hot core which is much warmer than outside. It is very interesting and instructive to follow it at different levels. At the beginning, you could notice the difference at low levels, 850 hPa for instance but day after day, you can see the differences, in the core and outside, also at much higher levels. This is because in the development process of an hurricane, the system releases latent heat, among others because of the condensation of warm and humid air at higher and higher level. Here you can see it clearly on the follwing map at 600hPa : +2°C in the core, -2 or -3°C outside. Huge difference !
Very instructive to follow the development of this medicane