Ceiling Forecast


  • Pilot | Premium

    Hello,

    I have been looking at the ceiling forecast on Windy and it appears that forecast date for large sections is missing as I scroll forward in time. An typical example is in the link below. The forecast has curving contour lines on the West side for the ceiling forecast that abruptly end. I also see grey areas with no forecast that go to 100' ceilings from one hour to the next. I understand that this is possible but what I am seeing does not match our typical weather patterns.

    https://on.windy.com/490ua
    Another example https://on.windy.com/49127

    For this forecast to be useful for aviation purposes it needs to have complete coverage of the area being viewed. This does not seem to be the case.

    Does any know if this is typical of the ceiling height forecast? Am I incorrect in thinking that this forecast does not provide complete coverage?

    Thank you,

    John


  • Meteorologist | Premium

    @johnp19
    I am not familiar with this type of issue but did you check if you get the same results with other models as GFS or NAM ?


  • Pilot | Premium

    @Yves70

    Hello,

    I tried switching to the other models but they do not appear to offer a ceiling forecast.

    John


  • Administrator

    @johnp19 Hello, could you enclose a screenshot please?


  • Pilot | Premium

    Hello,

    I do not have the screen shots from yesterday. Here is one from this morning that is somewhat representative of the issue. Look at the Tallahassee area and South and West of Andalusia. Maybe there is nothing there but I suspect the low ceilings extend into these gray areas. The large area in Southwest Georgia, between Americus and Blakely, does not provide useful data. The edge of the low ceilings could be forecast to end as shown, or it could extend all the way to Albany. If it is forecast to end where it is currently shown having a transition to higher ceilings indicated would be quite useful.

    This forecast has the potential to be quite useful. However, the apparent large gaps in coverage greatly reduce its usefulness for aviation use.

    Also, What does the gray area indicate? No forecast data, no clouds?

    Thank you,

    John

    1559d40b-c011-4d3e-b5be-ada8aa655045-image.png


  • Pilot | Premium

    Hello,

    Here is another example of the lack of data. The reported ceilings at the airports in the upper center of this screen shot range from 300' to 600' at 0830 local. In 30 minutes the 0900 ceiling forecast shows no data for this entire area.

    John

    00b7e45f-aee7-470a-81e4-0b8a62fe0384-image.png


  • Administrator

    @johnp19 Hello, airports show real-time data, however layer Cloud base shows forecast. That is why you see differences between the map and airport data.


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