Thunderstorms without a Cape index
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Today I see thunderstorms passing but looking at the Cape index I see ‘no activity / potential’ showing up. Can someone help me understand how we can have thunderstorms without a high(er) Cape index? Thanks!
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Did you checked all available forecast models in your area?
CAPE is just the result of a formula, while some models are not so good over areas having specific microclimate; e.g. GFS0.25° grid has a resolution of ~25 km, far not enough for best results over such an area.
Generally speaking, CAPE is not a magic number; forecasters use it in conjunction with other important parameters and analysis to provide best local forecast.
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