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    Thermal predictions

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    • S
      skysailor | Premium
      last edited by

      I am a glider pilot and feel that your thermic prediction look rather optimistic for the UK. Are you predicting the cloud tops rather than the useable thermic height?

      TZT 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • TZT
        TZ Administrator @skysailor
        last edited by

        @skysailor Hi, thank you for the feedback! Could you please provide more specific data? Which place/date and how big is the difference?

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        • S
          skysailor @TZ | Premium
          last edited by

          @tz Experience from today Sunday 30th May 2021 at Lasham airfield near Basingstoke UK. Your forecast at 12:00 UTC was 4900ft with a temperature of 17 degrees C, rising to 5300ft at 15:00 UTC. Actual at 12:00 UTC was 2000ft at a temperature of 17 degrees C. By 15:00 UTC the thermic height was 2500ft rising to 4000ft by 16:30 UTC. Trust this helps.

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          • TZT
            TZ Administrator @skysailor
            last edited by

            @skysailor Thank you for very detailed feedback. We will look at it. One more question - do you use ECMWF or ICON?
            About evaluation: we can easily compare forecast of cumuli with satellite imagery. Height of thermals is more complicated. We will probably use igc files or soundings.

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            • S
              skysailor @TZ | Premium
              last edited by

              @tz I use ECMWF. The heights that I gave previously were all QFE (AGL) at Lasham.

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              • TZT
                TZ Administrator @skysailor
                last edited by

                @skysailor Ok, heights forecast by Windy are AMSL, but it should not make such difference - Lasham/UK is 570ft.

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