SV Shameless | Premium last edited by
The difference between the GFS and ECMWF hurricane forecast for the storm forming off the west coast of mainland Mexico on August 26, 2021 is crazy. ECMWF shows a major hurricane, GFS shows nothing. There are thousands of boats in Cabo San Lucas and La Paz Mexico that rely on Windy. Why such a difference in forecast models? Help! :)
It is known that GFS is not very good at predicting track and wind speed of hurricanes. The model of the ECMWF is better in particular for the trajectory forecast.
NCEP use special model for hurricane forecast like HWRF. In these graphics AVNO is GFS. You see that it is far from the official (OFCL) predicted track which is quite close to ECMWF prediction.