ESTOFEX: Storm forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday
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Valid: Tue 07 Dec 2021 06:00 to Wed 08 Dec 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 06 Dec 2021 19:13
Forecaster: DAFISA level 1 was issued for Ireland, UK and NW France for damaging convective wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued for parts of Greece, Turkey and Cyprus for excessive convective precipitation, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
Synopsis
A deep trough has invaded central Mediterranean and destabilises the largest part of southern Europe. On Tue 7/12, the strong southwesterly flow over the eastern Mediterranean along with abundant large-scale lift by PVA, will result in numerous thunderstorms.
Another vigorous trough approaches from the Atlantic and will be associated with an extremely deep surface low. Finally, northern Europe is experiencing record-breaking low temperatures and blizzards.Discussion
Ireland, UK and NW France
There is a general consensus among the available NWP models about the time and position of a deep low west of Ireland before 12z on Tue 7/12. An explosive deepening will create a favourable environment for severe and damaging wind gusts, stronger than 40 m/s. Embedded convection will add an additional component to the damaging winds.
Greece, Turkey and Cyprus
As the trough shifts east and attains a negative tilt, the southerly flow over eastern Greece and western Turkey intensifies and brings unstable air masses. A few hundreds of CAPE suggest that several storms will develop and strong DLS can organise them in MCSs, producing excessive precipitation and strong gusts. A couple of supercells cannot be ruled out and high low-level SREH may lead to a few tornadic events near the coasts of Turkey and Cyprus.
