Temperature forecast accuracy
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I must live in an anomaly. All of the available forecast systems do not predict a very accurate temperature for me. Most times the are off by 5 F to 8 F. This morning I had a low of 17 F, the forecasts were off by as much as 15 F. Meteoblue was the closest. My temperature is not wrong as others in the area are in the same 1 degree agreement.
Do other folks have the same issue?
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@rick9004
You don’t say where you are living. There are places where weather models give inaccurate temperature forecast, in mountains specially. -
... also in snow covered plains in a clear night with low or no wind.
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@rick9004 There are also places called cold holes, where the temperature is systematically lower than the one predicted by the models especially by radiative nights
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I forgot to add: I live in the Charleston, SC area US... about 22 miles inland from the Atlantic. Flat land with a rather large lake to the west of me about 10 miles. I'm within a national forest (pine trees).
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@rick9004
So not easy to explain these inaccuracies. You can use a comparison tool between models forecasts and local reported temperature.
Select Reported temperature and click a weather station near your location to compare reported and predicted temperatures.
You can compare different models to see which is the best one for your area. Meteoblue seems better indeed for this parameter and this location.
Forecast temperature is shown by the upper dotted line and observed temperature by the color shaded curve.
Then you can see if there is a local bias. -
@idefix37 Thanks. I actually used the comparison to plot the different models for a month. Metroblue was the most accurate, but still way off many days. Interesting the local new forecasts are close so they must modify a model to fit the local area.
