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    Temperature forecast accuracy

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    • rick9004R
      rick9004
      last edited by idefix37

      I must live in an anomaly. All of the available forecast systems do not predict a very accurate temperature for me. Most times the are off by 5 F to 8 F. This morning I had a low of 17 F, the forecasts were off by as much as 15 F. Meteoblue was the closest. My temperature is not wrong as others in the area are in the same 1 degree agreement.

      Do other folks have the same issue?

      idefix37I 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • idefix37I
        idefix37 Sailor Moderator @rick9004
        last edited by

        @rick9004
        You don’t say where you are living. There are places where weather models give inaccurate temperature forecast, in mountains specially.

        Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
        • Gkikas LGPZG
          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37
          last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

          ... also in snow covered plains in a clear night with low or no wind.

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
          • Yves70Y
            Yves70 Meteorologist | Premium
            last edited by Yves70

            @rick9004 There are also places called cold holes, where the temperature is systematically lower than the one predicted by the models especially by radiative nights

            1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
            • rick9004R
              rick9004
              last edited by

              I forgot to add: I live in the Charleston, SC area US... about 22 miles inland from the Atlantic. Flat land with a rather large lake to the west of me about 10 miles. I'm within a national forest (pine trees).

              idefix37I 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • idefix37I
                idefix37 Sailor Moderator @rick9004
                last edited by idefix37

                @rick9004
                So not easy to explain these inaccuracies. You can use a comparison tool between models forecasts and local reported temperature.
                Select Reported temperature and click a weather station near your location to compare reported and predicted temperatures.

                217ADC5C-8CCD-41A4-AA50-1E6809D7A2EB.jpeg

                You can compare different models to see which is the best one for your area. Meteoblue seems better indeed for this parameter and this location.
                Forecast temperature is shown by the upper dotted line and observed temperature by the color shaded curve.
                Then you can see if there is a local bias.

                rick9004R 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                • rick9004R
                  rick9004 @idefix37
                  last edited by

                  @idefix37 Thanks. I actually used the comparison to plot the different models for a month. Metroblue was the most accurate, but still way off many days. Interesting the local new forecasts are close so they must modify a model to fit the local area.

                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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