Temperature forecasts appear underestimated
![screen shot forecast temps etc 23.11.22.jpg](/assets/uploads/files/1669175865859-screen-shot-forecast-temps-etc-23.11.22.jpgHi,
I would like to point out that the temperature forecasts for my area in Queensland, Australia have not reflected the true temperatures for many weeks now. For instance today, and the last three-four days, we have experienced a 'heatwave' (forecast by Australia's Bureau of Meteorology), with temps reaching 35-36 deg C but the highest forecast on Windy was around 30-31. Is there a reason for this? As I'm writing this about 2.00pm local time, the outside temp is 34 deg and your forecast bar shows 29. Thanks, David Gardiner.
To try to analyze the reason for these temperature discrepancies, could you show a screenshot or tell us precisely where you observe these temperatures. Your link does not work.
stitch Meteorologist | Premium last edited by
Try looking at this site for a temp fcst.
Looking at the temp at Cairns Apt, @ 1pm 24 Nov, it was 32.9C
The best model fcst (for 2pm) was GFS and DWD.
As you mentioned in your post, EC is too cool.
It is not an answer, but maybe another source to access your temp forecasts :)
@idefix37 I will try again to upload the screenshot I was referring to. It failed the first time
@idefix37 and here's one from today. Again, the forecast temps are about 3-4 degrees lower than the actuals. Thanks
@stitch thanks, I will check out this site too!
Thanks for the screenshot.
I don’t see a weather station near your location. But there is one a bit further south.
The Observation vs forecast feature in Windy enables to compare temperature forecasts locally by weather model. You just need to click Reported temperature.
Here is the comparison with ECMWF model that you use apparently. You see that its prediction matches quite well with observations:
Babinda is 9km from the sea and your favorite location seems to be at high level? It could explain a discrepancy. See my reply to Stitch’s post.
In Atherton further West, there is a wmo weather station which shows that ECMWF model and ACCESS are quite bad, METEOBLUE being the best at temperature forecast. Try this one in your local point forecast.
Windy is offering 5 different models available at point forecast. Have you tried all these models specially ACCESS the Australian model ?
Yes it’s not an answer and these curves do not bring real information for a location which is different.
Near the seashore there are big differences of temperature prediction between weather models as it depends on the position of their grid points, more on the sea or more on the land.
If you use the Observation vs forecast feature as explained here above, you’ll see that both ECMWF and ACCESS are quite bad at predicting temperature at Cairns airport, and GFS a bit better. This is because Windy interpolates the values at grid points and some of them are above the sea.
As shown by https://spotwx.com/, GFS grid points for Cairns airport are mainly above the land.
Meteoblue gives very good forecast at Cairns airport because near seashore they use the nearest points of the grid above the land from several models.
BTW that would be a good feature if Windy could shows the grid points of each models as shown here above. That would allow to understand and explain some discrepancies and inaccuracies in parameters forecasts.
@idefix37 Thanks for pointing out the different sources available. It is interesting, my location is at the foothills of Queensland state's highest and 2nd highest mountain ranges (Bartle Frere and Bellenden Ker) - but we do still normally get the hotter temperatures like the other weather station locations around us. Occasionally cooler temperatures flow down from the mountains depending on wind direction, but not often. I will check out the other temp sources and see how they go. Thanks again - David.