Weatherkit Forecast Model
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@senaika Unfortunately from using Hyperlocal Weather all summer I'm very familiar with the inaccuracy of forecasts. Windy isn't totally accurate but it's so much better than Hyperlocal that for now I'm just trusting what it says. I have no way to validate forecasts with real world data anyway.
I mounted an anemometer on one of my bikes and it seemed to work except that I couldn't read the display in the sun. Stopping to take wind readings every few miles ruins the ride and the gusts are so variable out here that I had great difficulty taking readings at all. The direction and speed were changing constantly by about 2-3x the speed and 120-160 degrees in heading IIRC.
Apple has a long history of aquiring good stuff, ruining it, slapping their logo on it and pushing it as a new product. I doubt anyone else remembers since it's ancient history but SoundJam MP used to be the absolute best MP3 player for the Macintosh. Then in 2001 I think it was, Apple bought it, massacred the code to remove most of the good features, and then re-release the software as "iTunes 1.0." Within a year or two they also updated the Mac OS so the last released version of SoundJam MP wouldn't run. I was furious.
Apple will never learn apparently, and now even tho I switched to Android they're still screwing me over by aquiring Hyperlocal Weather and ruining it with Weatherkit. I used to love Apple but now I think they're idiots who only inconvenience the world.
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@idefix37 Does the lack of actual responses regarding a good general weather forecasting program to use in conjunction with Windy mean that people in this forum are using Windy for general forecasts?
If so, I need to know how to do that. When I try to look at general weather in Windy the best I can find is this tiny little ˜72 hour chart at the bottom of the map. I can scroll to see more but it's still super hard to read and I can't check the weather at a glance.
That chart is nearly illegible to me, with all the data crammed in super tiny and that huge map wasting space. It's a terrible format.I used to really like the graph and chart given by Hyperlocal Weather:
Hyperlocal's presentation is far superior. It's a real shame Apple made it too inaccurate to use in this area with their shitty WeatherKit.So how do I get Windy to show me data in a usable way, or find an app I can use in conjunction with Windy that will?
It seems like there are dozens if not hundreds of weather apps out there so there must be one with good presentation and accuracy.
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@tessellahedron 7-10 days is not incredibly accurate with any model or system in my experience. At that range, you typically only have lower resolution models available that can provide a general idea, but rarely will be able to predict with precision what is going to happen that far out.
To get a very localized forecast that's as close to accurate as possible, you have to synthesize lots of data sources. For example, combining medium range forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON) with the higher resolution models as things get close (things like HRRR or NAM). You can also sometimes find other higher resolution models that might cover your area to help in this process. Throwing in pre-made forecasts from major sources like weather.com or accuweather can also be helpful as a grounding point.
There's also the "reading between the lines" aspect to consider, where over time you'll see that certain models and weather patterns have a tendency to over/underestimate conditions for your hyper specific location when represented as a forecast.
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Hyperlocal also does a really nice graph of wind speed with gust speeds overlaid. I'm still learning to use Windy but I haven't seen anything so far that's this easy to use. I can tell at a glance if/when gaps in the intolerable wind may occur.
I thought maybe in Windy the area between the map and the data chart is supposed to serve this function. I'm guessing the number shown is the high and the graphic is the weather but without having the colors memorized the rest of the info doesn't mean much.
Using alerts in Windy could potentially eliminate the need to check the weather every day. The problem with that is that there's no option for Windy to alert based on wind gusts, just wind. There are too many days here that are actually ok in terms of wind but completely ruined by the gusts. Hyperlocal's data may be off but the graph above shows a couple examples of days like that.
I'm going to try setting an alert anyway, and then when it goes off I'll check the gust forecast. That might make the process a little easier vs. checking general weather daily.
Still looking for an easier way if anyone has a suggestion.
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@illili You make some vey good points. I did notice even when Hyperlocal was using Dark Sky that wind forecasts were subject to change up to the last minute.
I also noticed that if a windy day showed up in the 10-day and stayed windy as it got closer, but then changed to low wind in the last 48 hours, that day would most likely be high wind with an inacccurate forecast or the forecast would go way up at the last minute.
I think it was also true in reverse. If the wind and gust forecasts went way up at the last minute then it probably would be windy but not as much as forecasted.
My goal is to get a rough idea of the forecast to know which days are worth checking detailed forecasts for and which days that would be a waste of time.
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@tessellahedron I think that "rough idea" is where Windy shines.
Because you can get a visual representation of the model outputs that also show isobars/geopotential heights/different atmosphere layers, I think that can help a lot with knowing whether or not it generally might be windy.
Personally, I use the visual representations primarily; only looking at forecasts that give more rigid numerical values for general alignment.
Ultimately, it's a matter of preference and what seems to work best for your area.
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@tessellahedron Have you tried changing from "Basic" to "Wind"?
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@Wheats I did, and that looks useful for getting detailed wind info but I'm looking for general weather info like temperature, precipitation and a rough indicator of wind so I can make a quick decision about whether or not to look at that detailed wind info to see if I can go biking.
For now I'm trying to accomplish this with an alert, but I'm quite disappointed to see that Windy can't do alerts for wind gust speed, only wind speed. The gusts are so high and variable in nature around here that a wind forecast without them is completely wrong more often than not.
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@illili when you say visual representations do you mean the map or the graphics that are overlaid with the data chart at the bottom of the screen?
The map is great for seeing wind data represented spatially but not so great when I'm just trying to see the weather forecast in one spot.
I'm thinking about just looking for any general purpose weather app that includes wind gusts (there might not be very many) and has decent graphs of temperature, wind gust and precipitation forecasts.
I need something to tell me at a glance whether or not to open Windy because while Windy has the data I need to see it's just too cumbersome to use. Maybe I was spoiled with Hyperlocal Weather while it still used Dark Sky.
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@tessellahedron For a general purpose app, I like NOAA Weather and Tides (the icon is a sun and cloud in a crosshair and is free). That more or less takes what's on NOAAs website and puts it into a simple app. It lets you pick a specific spot on the map and will give you the forecast for whatever grid it's in.
But for Windy, yes I like the visual map most since that shows any given layer (wind, gusts, rain, temp, etc.) and lets me see what's most likely to happen based on the surrounding conditions of my area.
In Windy, you can get the forecast for a given location to get a more generalized readout. You can fiddle with the options to pick a different model, or if you want to compare you can set it to do that as well. Then it'll show each model output on a single timeline so you can get an idea if there's consensus or not. The Meteogram option has what you want with forecasted average and gust speeds.
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@illili You're right, that view does show the data I need and it seems to be the closest Windy can get to Hyperlocal Weather's presentation. It's still hard to use tho, being so tiny with most of the screen wasted on the useless map. Time will tell if I can get used to Windy's format and accurately determine when it's worth examining route forecasts.
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I think Flowx is the closest I've found to Hyperlocal's wind graphs so far. It has the wind with wind gust overlay. They're ugly, hard to read graphs, but at least they're graphs.
And I still don't get the obsession with maps. They're useless for biking or point forecasts. Are there really that many people with planes and boats?
If ditching every app with a non-hideable map wouldn't leave me with no options at all I would do it.
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This would be great if it included wind gusts. It's useless to me without them.
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@tessellahedron
I agree with you here - gusts would be a great addition to the compare forecast screen as well as the forecast panel that pops up.Here's a thought... what if you customize the colour scale of the "wind" layer - that way you can have the forecast panel up (to show you temps, sky conditions, etc) and also have the "wind gusts" layer open to have a visual representation of the wind for your area. You just need to customize the wind colour scale in settings to your liking.
@idefix37 has a great colour scheme using the beaufort scale, I find it separates out the different wind speeds better than the default.
But also, you could just make all gusts you can handle (for biking) white and everything else bright pink if you wanted - the possibilities are endless! haha -
@Wheats I really liked your idea at first but then I tried to do it. The color picker in the app is so hard to use I actually had to turn on the accessibility magnification feature in Android to be able to get close to the colors I wanted (green, yellow, red). Finally they were good enough but when I went back to the forecast panel only the colors on the map had changed. The chart still uses the default colors.
Did I miss a setting somewhere?
I will admit with this change for the first time I'm seeing the map as slightly better than completely useless. When I zoom in to view a 44 mile round trip bike route the wind is the same everywhere and the map becomes a gigantic go/no-go light. A little dot would convey the same information.
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It would also help if the customized color scheme applied to the widget as well. Then I could make the chart readable with colors and not have to try to read the tiny text.
Maybe I'm a unique case because if the gusts are below about 10-12 mph I go biking and if it's over I stay home. So I want to see a huge color change between 10 and 12 mph and everything above and below can just be two colors.
An option for customizing chart colors is the only way it makes sense to do this because most people probably like the default color variation which does show the data in a usable way if you memorize the colors.
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@tessellahedron I don't think the colour customizations are linked in that way - between the map and the widgets/forecast panels. I like that idea though. You should put this in a clean post in the Feature Request section - custom colour scales in the app affecting the forecast panels and widgets.
It's interesting - you lean towards maps being useless because you are focusing on a certain location. In my world - I use both, but use the maps way more often to gain a picture or perspective of what's happening on a larger scale and what may or may not being coming in the future. I'll look at a line chart when I need to analyze a specific trend for an area or analyze specific data from an instrument...but not for a forecast - unless it's an ensemble or some long range trend analysis.
Personally - I've done all my settings changes using the website...much easier to use. So I can't relate to the trouble you have with seeing the text.
The website is MUCH better in my opinion. But I get it, some may not have the option of using the website. -
@tessellahedron For the maps, it's a matter of preference but they are also useful as you get to know your area better.
For example, if I just look at a graph output that says it's going to be a south wind of 10mph, that's helpful but if I look at a map version of a forecast, I can see much more clearly how likely that is to happen given the current setup.
The reason is I can see how a particular storm is "shaped", what is the tilt of the pressure gradient, what are the winds above the surface doing (those can enhance ground level winds depending how they setup, or steer a storm away), will a rain shadow likely form, etc..
All this amounts to me being able to make a better guess at a hyper local forecast of wind and rain.
Ultimately, no single source is going to be right all the time. For the most accurate forecast, you need to combine multiple models and sources of information. It's why professionals also use ensemble forecasting, where they run a model multiple times with slight variations to average out the inherent shortcomings of a single model run.
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@illili @Wheats I see how a zoomed out map that can show storm "shape" combined with analysing conditions in the upper atmosphere could be useful to a meteorologist. That's their job after all. It means absolutely nothing to me.
All I want to know is whether or not I can go biking.
I liked the idea of comparing forecasts to get a better idea of what might happen than from using just one forecast, and eventually learning which model(s) is accurate in my area. I tried to do exactly that yesterday afternoon and had terrible results tho.
I think gusts are being added to Windy's forecast compare feature, but for now I used Flowx to compare 8 forecast models that included gusts (for some reason ECMWF has no gust info in Flowx). All but one of the models showed wind gusts below 11 mph. Basically it looked like a great opportunity to bike, so I went for a ride.
Before leaving I checked the route forecast using Windy, leaving it set to the default model (ECMWF I think). That forecast showed gusts of 16 and 17 mph, a definite no-go. I went anyway hoping it would be more like what the other 8 models predicted.
It wasn't. I have no way to validate wind forecasts with actual readings while I'm biking (that's another issue I've wanted to solve but haven't been able to find an anemometer or other method that would work on the bike), but the wind was whistling around my helmet and I've heard that doesn't happen until at least 18 mph.
If I had to estimate the gust speeds 15-20 mph would sound about right, but that's a wild guess just based on how it felt and past rides/forecasts. With turns in the route and lulls in the gusts I would say only 1/3 to 1/2 of the ride was really unpleasant. For a 3 hour ride (my normal route) that means being battered by gusts for over an hour. Plus, a bad cross-wind gust right when a vehicle is passing could literally get me killed.
I don't know what to do. Idiots in other forums have suggested an exercise bike in the past and while that's the stupidest, most irritating suggestion imaginable, it's also the only one that's guaranteed to solve the problem completely, other than maybe moving which I can't do right now. I doubt words can convey how much that pisses me off.
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@tessellahedron I downloaded that Flowx app, it's pretty nice. What's worth noting is you're looking at the same data as on Windy for comparable models. If you prefer that interface, then it might be a good choice for you to add to the mix.
Something about Windy that I'm not sure if you've used yet; you can use the wind gust map for any of the available models in the map view we've mentioned.
I also just wanted to highlight something we've touched on a few times but it bears repeating:
You seem very interested in getting more precise than what your average app (which is built for average folks who don't care about the minutiae of weather) can show.
Unfortunately, no model/forecast on any app is 100% accurate. Even high-resolution models like the HRRR, NAM, HRDPS, etc. all have weaknesses and will not provide an exact forecast. If you want to get more precise than what you are finding in graphical readouts/standard apps, you have little choice but to become a bit more of a weather nerd to learn your local area better and utilize more tools.
I certainly don't think you need to quit biking, but I do think you'll need to take more of an interest in forecasting weather if it's impacting your rides that much.
