Weatherkit Forecast Model
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Hello,
I switched from Google weather which came with my Android tablet to the Hyperlocal Weather app in order to see graphs of wind gust speed. Apparently wind gusts aren't an issue in most places because Google weather omits them completely but around here the gusts will ruin an otherwise nice day. I learned the hard way that even when two days have the exact same forecast, one could end up being a great day for a bike ride and the other could leave me wishing I'd never left home, continously battered by high speed and highly variable wind gusts.
I'm about 20 miles from the NE corner of Colorado and about a mile from the northern state line. It's the edge of the great plains, with interstate highway access but still the middle of nowhere.
Now, a year or so later, Apple has purchased Hyperlocal and converted it from Dark Sky to their new Weatherkit. I was having serious problems with incorrect forecasts, despite considering gust speeds. It took me months to find that I could do route forecasts with Windy, there are just too many features, but I think I finally figured it out.
The problem I'm having now is that I'm still trying to use Hyperlocal Weather's 10-day forecast to see the general temperature and wind gust predictions, but it's not agreeing with Windy at all. For example, today Hyperlocal says the wind gusts will be 11 mph or less from 1 pm to sunset with temperatures in the 60's F. That sounds like perfect biking weather and 6 months ago I would definitely have gone on a ride this afternoon.
I checked two of my routes and three point forecasts around the area using Windy and they're all over 15 mph. I don't have a good handle on my wind gust threshold because I haven't found a way to validate the forecasts with real wind readings taken while biking (how to do that is another question I have) but I believe it's around 11-12 mph. If I go riding today I'll probably be miserable.
There was one day recently where Hyperlocal and Windy gave different forecasts and I went riding to see who was more right and it was definitely Windy.
I'm wondering if the difference is because Weatherkit uses a different forecast model than Windy, which says "ECMWF." Whatever the reason, it's annoying and I don't see a way to change the model/data source for Hyperlocal Weather. The option to use Dark Sky as the data source is gone. I'm assuming that if Windy is set to ECMWF by default, it's because that's the best option but I really don't know. In any case, I don't want to change Windy to an incorrect model so it matches Hyperlocal, I want to make Hyperlocal accurate (or replace it).
So what's the deal with Hyperlocal Weather being wrong, and more importantly, is there a better source I can use for seeing the general 7-day (or maybe 10-day) forecast? I usually check it every day to get a ballpark idea of what things will be like and whether or not it's even worth opening Windy to check the forecasts on my routes for the next 24-72 hours.
Thanks for your suggestions
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@tessellahedron this is a good explanation of models in windy.
My guess is HRRR will give you the best results in the 24-72 hour window -
@Norman-Vine I switched to HRRR. Thanks for that tip.
The compare forecasts feature would be pretty useful if it included wind gusts. I've learned the hard way not to rely on wind forecasts that don't include gusts.
The bigger question is how to change Hyperlocal Weather to the same model or since it looks like that's no possible, find an replacement app that will show me an accurate general 7-10 day forecast.
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You are thinking that we will advise you, on the Windy forum, by promoting an app supposedly more precise than Windy ??
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@tessellahedron
If I'm not wrong, windy ECMWF model is updated every 6 or 12 hours. And weather forecasts can change quite quickly depending on the location, especially those with a lot of mountains around.Keep in mind that this is "forecasts", so it doesn't mean everything will be accurate. In the old times, most weather services gave a reliability % for accuracy: For example, 80% for sunny weather tomorrow, which means there is a 20% chances that it won't be sunny at all. Usually after 3-4 days, the reliability level drops below 50% of success. And because most weather forecast companies are businesses that needs to generate revenue, they tend to not show the reliability % anymore.
For WeatherKit, from my experience, since Apple bought Dark Sky, it just became less accurate, while Dark Sky use to be one of the most accurate. Sad.
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@idefix37 no, I'm asking for a recommendation of an app to use in conjunction with Windy, or a way to get Windy to show a general weather forecast summary for the next 7-10 days, like what is normally provided by every weather app. I use the general forecast to determine if it's worth opening Windy and checking the detailed wind forecast and route forecasts for my favorite routes.
Not having a good general forecast meant that I saw a potential riding day today/tomorrow and opened Windy only to find that there's actually no chance of riding on either day due to wind gusts. No chance by a long shot... opening Windy was a waste of time. I need something better than Hyperlocal Weather.
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@senaika Unfortunately from using Hyperlocal Weather all summer I'm very familiar with the inaccuracy of forecasts. Windy isn't totally accurate but it's so much better than Hyperlocal that for now I'm just trusting what it says. I have no way to validate forecasts with real world data anyway.
I mounted an anemometer on one of my bikes and it seemed to work except that I couldn't read the display in the sun. Stopping to take wind readings every few miles ruins the ride and the gusts are so variable out here that I had great difficulty taking readings at all. The direction and speed were changing constantly by about 2-3x the speed and 120-160 degrees in heading IIRC.
Apple has a long history of aquiring good stuff, ruining it, slapping their logo on it and pushing it as a new product. I doubt anyone else remembers since it's ancient history but SoundJam MP used to be the absolute best MP3 player for the Macintosh. Then in 2001 I think it was, Apple bought it, massacred the code to remove most of the good features, and then re-release the software as "iTunes 1.0." Within a year or two they also updated the Mac OS so the last released version of SoundJam MP wouldn't run. I was furious.
Apple will never learn apparently, and now even tho I switched to Android they're still screwing me over by aquiring Hyperlocal Weather and ruining it with Weatherkit. I used to love Apple but now I think they're idiots who only inconvenience the world.
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@idefix37 Does the lack of actual responses regarding a good general weather forecasting program to use in conjunction with Windy mean that people in this forum are using Windy for general forecasts?
If so, I need to know how to do that. When I try to look at general weather in Windy the best I can find is this tiny little ˜72 hour chart at the bottom of the map. I can scroll to see more but it's still super hard to read and I can't check the weather at a glance.
That chart is nearly illegible to me, with all the data crammed in super tiny and that huge map wasting space. It's a terrible format.I used to really like the graph and chart given by Hyperlocal Weather:
Hyperlocal's presentation is far superior. It's a real shame Apple made it too inaccurate to use in this area with their shitty WeatherKit.So how do I get Windy to show me data in a usable way, or find an app I can use in conjunction with Windy that will?
It seems like there are dozens if not hundreds of weather apps out there so there must be one with good presentation and accuracy.
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@tessellahedron 7-10 days is not incredibly accurate with any model or system in my experience. At that range, you typically only have lower resolution models available that can provide a general idea, but rarely will be able to predict with precision what is going to happen that far out.
To get a very localized forecast that's as close to accurate as possible, you have to synthesize lots of data sources. For example, combining medium range forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, ICON) with the higher resolution models as things get close (things like HRRR or NAM). You can also sometimes find other higher resolution models that might cover your area to help in this process. Throwing in pre-made forecasts from major sources like weather.com or accuweather can also be helpful as a grounding point.
There's also the "reading between the lines" aspect to consider, where over time you'll see that certain models and weather patterns have a tendency to over/underestimate conditions for your hyper specific location when represented as a forecast.
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Hyperlocal also does a really nice graph of wind speed with gust speeds overlaid. I'm still learning to use Windy but I haven't seen anything so far that's this easy to use. I can tell at a glance if/when gaps in the intolerable wind may occur.
I thought maybe in Windy the area between the map and the data chart is supposed to serve this function. I'm guessing the number shown is the high and the graphic is the weather but without having the colors memorized the rest of the info doesn't mean much.
Using alerts in Windy could potentially eliminate the need to check the weather every day. The problem with that is that there's no option for Windy to alert based on wind gusts, just wind. There are too many days here that are actually ok in terms of wind but completely ruined by the gusts. Hyperlocal's data may be off but the graph above shows a couple examples of days like that.
I'm going to try setting an alert anyway, and then when it goes off I'll check the gust forecast. That might make the process a little easier vs. checking general weather daily.
Still looking for an easier way if anyone has a suggestion.
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@illili You make some vey good points. I did notice even when Hyperlocal was using Dark Sky that wind forecasts were subject to change up to the last minute.
I also noticed that if a windy day showed up in the 10-day and stayed windy as it got closer, but then changed to low wind in the last 48 hours, that day would most likely be high wind with an inacccurate forecast or the forecast would go way up at the last minute.
I think it was also true in reverse. If the wind and gust forecasts went way up at the last minute then it probably would be windy but not as much as forecasted.
My goal is to get a rough idea of the forecast to know which days are worth checking detailed forecasts for and which days that would be a waste of time.
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@tessellahedron I think that "rough idea" is where Windy shines.
Because you can get a visual representation of the model outputs that also show isobars/geopotential heights/different atmosphere layers, I think that can help a lot with knowing whether or not it generally might be windy.
Personally, I use the visual representations primarily; only looking at forecasts that give more rigid numerical values for general alignment.
Ultimately, it's a matter of preference and what seems to work best for your area.
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@tessellahedron Have you tried changing from "Basic" to "Wind"?
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@Wheats I did, and that looks useful for getting detailed wind info but I'm looking for general weather info like temperature, precipitation and a rough indicator of wind so I can make a quick decision about whether or not to look at that detailed wind info to see if I can go biking.
For now I'm trying to accomplish this with an alert, but I'm quite disappointed to see that Windy can't do alerts for wind gust speed, only wind speed. The gusts are so high and variable in nature around here that a wind forecast without them is completely wrong more often than not.
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@illili when you say visual representations do you mean the map or the graphics that are overlaid with the data chart at the bottom of the screen?
The map is great for seeing wind data represented spatially but not so great when I'm just trying to see the weather forecast in one spot.
I'm thinking about just looking for any general purpose weather app that includes wind gusts (there might not be very many) and has decent graphs of temperature, wind gust and precipitation forecasts.
I need something to tell me at a glance whether or not to open Windy because while Windy has the data I need to see it's just too cumbersome to use. Maybe I was spoiled with Hyperlocal Weather while it still used Dark Sky.
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@tessellahedron For a general purpose app, I like NOAA Weather and Tides (the icon is a sun and cloud in a crosshair and is free). That more or less takes what's on NOAAs website and puts it into a simple app. It lets you pick a specific spot on the map and will give you the forecast for whatever grid it's in.
But for Windy, yes I like the visual map most since that shows any given layer (wind, gusts, rain, temp, etc.) and lets me see what's most likely to happen based on the surrounding conditions of my area.
In Windy, you can get the forecast for a given location to get a more generalized readout. You can fiddle with the options to pick a different model, or if you want to compare you can set it to do that as well. Then it'll show each model output on a single timeline so you can get an idea if there's consensus or not. The Meteogram option has what you want with forecasted average and gust speeds.
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@illili You're right, that view does show the data I need and it seems to be the closest Windy can get to Hyperlocal Weather's presentation. It's still hard to use tho, being so tiny with most of the screen wasted on the useless map. Time will tell if I can get used to Windy's format and accurately determine when it's worth examining route forecasts.
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I think Flowx is the closest I've found to Hyperlocal's wind graphs so far. It has the wind with wind gust overlay. They're ugly, hard to read graphs, but at least they're graphs.
And I still don't get the obsession with maps. They're useless for biking or point forecasts. Are there really that many people with planes and boats?
If ditching every app with a non-hideable map wouldn't leave me with no options at all I would do it.
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This would be great if it included wind gusts. It's useless to me without them.
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@tessellahedron
I agree with you here - gusts would be a great addition to the compare forecast screen as well as the forecast panel that pops up.Here's a thought... what if you customize the colour scale of the "wind" layer - that way you can have the forecast panel up (to show you temps, sky conditions, etc) and also have the "wind gusts" layer open to have a visual representation of the wind for your area. You just need to customize the wind colour scale in settings to your liking.
@idefix37 has a great colour scheme using the beaufort scale, I find it separates out the different wind speeds better than the default.
But also, you could just make all gusts you can handle (for biking) white and everything else bright pink if you wanted - the possibilities are endless! haha
