Observation time vs Forecast time
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In the Observation vs Forecast feature, the chart shows a wind speed and temperature that was observed and what each forecast model predicted for a given observation time. What is the forecast time on that chart? It could be the forecast from 24 hours ago prior, 48 hours prior, most recent run of the model, etc.
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@kurtwalker
Your question seems strange to me. The forecasts from the different models and the observations from the weather station are those a user was seeing in Windy at that time.
In the example below, the comparison at 00h comes from the parameters displayed in Windy at that time.
Of course the forecast came from the most recent model update which took place a few hours before.
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Thanks @idefix37
"Of course the forecast came from the most recent model update which took place a few hours before."
That doesn't seem very obvious to me based on the layout. Given that each model runs at a different frequency, it would be useful to know for a given forecasted value, what time that forecast was made. I'm also interested to know which model has the most accurate 3-day forecast at my locations.
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All forecast data in Windy comes from the latest model update.
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@kurtwalker I also had this question and agree it is not obvious. The fact that the observation vs forecast comparison is at different refresh frequencies (based on how frequently the model prediction refreshes) makes this a less useful feature. Of course the models that refresh more frequently will perform better. The function only tests short term prediction accuracy in that case. I would prefer a standard time out comparison based on the slowest refresh rate. Or better yet to be able to control the prediction time somehow! Maybe a button for 1 day or 3 day. That could be a really wonderful feature for comparing real world model performance.
@idefix37 It is also unclear how the median error thumbs are calculated (far right on the obs vs forecast tab, thumb indicating the lowest mean error). Is that median error for the past hour? week? all recorded time at this station/model combination?
Thanks for this wonderful app. I use it everyday!
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@kurtwalker said in Observation time vs Forecast time:
Thanks @idefix37
"Of course the forecast came from the most recent model update which took place a few hours before."
That doesn't seem very obvious to me based on the layout. Given that each model runs at a different frequency, it would be useful to know for a given forecasted value, what time that forecast was made. I'm also interested to know which model has the most accurate 3-day forecast at my locations.
I agree. So many forecasts are reasonably good for the next few hours. It would be great if the user could select the forecast time difference to see which forecast is best at 1 day or even 1 week.
