Weather accuracy
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Hi. I have been getting inconsistent forecasts. Rain prediction is highly inaccurate. For instance, no rain is forecast for now and it’s been raining nonstop. We have had floods the past few days, nothing of that amount of rain was forecast. The rain forecast for the next few days shows more flooding. I’m not sure what to believe? #rain
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@Windhorse-Ranch
Where? -
Hi. I am a meteorologist and do remote weather forecasting for expeditions in Denali Alaska. Going off telemetry and on mountain observations, I am noticing that your temperature forecasts have been consistently low at all elevations. 5-10c (20-30f) below reported temps.
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@John-Meriwether
Windy provides a lot of wx. models.
Also, there is a usefull tool for comparison of actual vs forecast.
It seems that meteoblue forecast data show the best accuracy for your area.
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@Gkikas-LGPZ
Thank you. I am forecasting for Denali Climbers from 7000' to Summit (20,000'). The upper elevations +17,000' temps are hard to pin down. -
What model do you use to estimate temperature at high altitude?
In mountain it is necessary to use a high resolution model. The best model at the top of Denali seems to be NAM (6km resolution)
HRRR (3km resolution) shows higher temp.
ECMWF (9km resolution) is a bit worse
GFS (22 km resolution) gives the highest temperatures.
But why NAM with 6km resolution is better compared to HRRR (3km). This is because NAM “see” the summit at higher level (the model elevation) and is closer to the reality than the other models.
(See Forecast sounding)
Other model elevation is lower:
Sorry I did not changed elevation from meters to feet.
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Windy is getting forecasts all wrong! It's 4 pm where I am, no rains for the last 10 days. And it shows rains on the map, in fact Windy says we had rains from 1 pm.- 3 pm. Ground reality - not a drop. 40°C + temperatures!
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@Marshneil-Sinha hi, no cruel intentions, but weather forecasting is a kind of modyfied guessing game at microscale as well as macroscale, so dont blame windy for that. they just issue a bunch of welldocumented scientifical meteorological weather models that may hit as well as miss. stick your nose outside, smell the fresh hot air, and youll make your own predictive assessments on the wx front,at least for a short while...
not knowing where you live, that temp you are experiencing might be an omen of a thunderstorm coming...
have a nice day in our chaotic butterflying sphere called air/ether.
ørjan
