Chance of Rain/Storms
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Hi there!
New to Windy, first time posting, foregive me for any obvious errors.
I've come across a few similar posts but figured I'd ask the same question myself. It seems that the models on Windy don't provide a "% chance" of either rain or storms happening, as I am used to seeing on other weather services like NWS etc. From what I gather, Windy provides more "deterministic" forecast models rather than any sort of conglomeration.
So, what's the best way to intuitively go about deciding if it's going to rain or storm? Should one simply look through all the models, and if more models agree on rain/storm, then by default it's more likely? And vice versa? This became relevant on a recent climbing tip on Mt. Whitney, where one of the models showed rain and lightning on a summit forecast, while none of the others didn't. This obviously gave us some pause as to whether to attempt the climb that day or not. Fortunately, the weather was a solid as it could be, as predicted by most of the other models. I just want to make sure I'm using the information as best as I can so I and future groups can make the safest decisions.
Thanks in advance!
Dan
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@Daniel-Mordarski
Hello
You are right. Windy use only Deterministic models. The probabilities are based on Ensemble models which are not included in Windy.
But you can as you say compare the forecasts of the different models available in your area.
The best way is to use the “Compare” table below the point forecast panel.
You can also use the Observation vs forecast at a nearby weather station. It give you what is the best model for wind or temperature locally
