Not accurate forecasting
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I have noticed lately that the forecast has not been very accurate in fact it’s been very off! For instance there is no rain forecast for now and it’s been pouring for hours, even hail! I rely heavily on rain forecast for my horses.
I understand if it’s a bit off, but this is extremely inaccurate. -
@Windhorse-Ranch Hi, did you check more models available for your forecast? Can you please show the detail of certain time?
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This application is providing false forecasting. Now in app it is showing heavy rain but there is
no rain -
@Suty I agree with @Windhorse-Ranch. For a few months now the app has become less accurate. Now, 7AM, 23/set/2024 where I live is raining, it's darker than the normal (because of heavy clouds), and also my dog is panicking because of the infrasound of the thunders. But all the forecast models (ECMWF, GFS, IVON and MBLUE) are showing a 'sun icon' and no rain im mm. The satellite imagery show clouds over the map. But the radar with 'thermal-image-like' does not. There's only a storm alert for the cities 50km away...
Images:
https://imguh.com/image/Wg9r9
https://imguh.com/image/WgGIN
https://imguh.com/image/WgT8D
https://imguh.com/image/WgZ5j
https://imguh.com/image/Wgrn1 -
@Nickolas-Both
ECMWF wx. model shows a brief thunderstorm up to 8 am.
There are rain clouds comin' from southwest up to the area
of Porto Alegre.
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@Gkikas-LGPZ Agreed. But what I'm saying is, that the app seems to not be accurate anymore, as it was a few months ago.
Today 25/sept/2024, early morning for example, 6AM. A heavy rain falling that just appeared out of nowhere, with strong thunders. It lasted 10 to 15 minutes, and gone.
Via satellite imagery, I can see the clouds passing by. But in the 'weather radar' or 'rain thunder' there's nothing. And the icons graphics below (I don't know the name, I'm not a English native speaker) there's a shiny sun.
I know this types of storms are a little unpredictable, mainly in spring and summer (down here in South America).
But what I'm saying is, if this happened in January or February this year, the app was bullseye right. And now, not so precisely anymore.
And is not seems to be a configuration, because I have tested in others computers/browsers/logged-off accounts. Maybe it was an improvement in something else and this is a collateral issue, I don't know.
I can live with that, I'm just reporting it. (Sorry for the long post)
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@Windhorse-Ranch said in Not accurate forecasting:
I have noticed lately that the forecast has not been very accurate in fact it’s been very off! For instance there is no rain forecast for now and it’s been pouring for hours, even hail! I rely heavily on rain forecast for my horses.
I understand if it’s a bit off, but this is extremely inaccurate. -
@Windystu You are looking at model data that is included in the Windy API. There is always an inaccuracy present in weather models. Some models are better in the boundary layer, other models at other levels of the atmosphere. Some are better with convective precipitation, others with dynamic precipitation. Models differ in resolution, used numerical equations, surface/soil diagrams, hydrostatica etc. etc.
In the end, when looking at a computer generated forecast, you are looking at the output of a single numerical weather model. Some understanding of how the weather and how numerical weather models work is essential in creating a realistic forecast. The fact that models itself are less accurate could be contributed to the synoptic situation at that moment, or changes in the calculations/models. It is not attributed to the API/software you are using while looking at the chosen model.
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@Nickolas-Both said in Not accurate forecasting:
that the app seems to not be accurate anymore
If a model isn't accurate, it doesn't mean the app is not accurate.
