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    Hurricane wind speeds and Windy app reported speeds

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    • hullknockerH
      hullknocker @idefix37
      last edited by

      @idefix37

      Thank you for the related posts, but what is the current wind for MILTON? (Not the weather model's "predicted" wind and not the NOAA "forecast" wind.)

      If windy.com's map is saying Hurricane Milton's wind speed is 58knots and the windy.com page for hurricane Milton is saying the sustained wind speed is 130 knots, what is the actual wind speed at that moment at the site?

      It is confusing to see windy.com wind speeds around 58knots in the same area that windy.com hurricane overlay, the NWS, and mainstream media is reporting above 130knots.

      idefix37I 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
      • idefix37I
        idefix37 Sailor Moderator @hullknocker
        last edited by idefix37

        @hullknocker

        What is the current wind?

        Windy does not display the current wind as it would be measured by an anemometer near the eye of the hurricane. How could Windy do this and create a reported wind speed map?

        Windy visualises the forecast of several global models and regional models. So windy is not reporting wind speeds.

        mainstream media is reporting above 130knots.

        This is the NHC forecast/observation using Dvorak analysis on satellite views and aircraft recon by Hurricane Hunters.
        You can get these wind speeds from NHC in Windy by viewing the Hurricane tracker.

        343BA9DE-5327-4453-AE80-399F0763E1D1.jpeg

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        • S
          SuperDave8000 | Premium
          last edited by

          Similarly, the wind conditions projected don't match forecast either. Milton should be down to Cat1 by the time it crosses the eastern coastline, and should show winds around 70knts. However, I cannot find any forecast for that time period at the east coast that shows anything over 40. Is it simply that the time slice won't allow this detail?

          I would expect that SOMEWHERE in that area should be showing 70knts, but nothing shows this in forecast.

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • C
            Chappy123
            last edited by

            So basically, Windy is useless in terms of reporting actual windspeed? That's what it seems like.

            David PolášekD 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • David PolášekD
              David Polášek Administrator @Chappy123
              last edited by

              @Chappy123
              No, Windy shows both wind forecasts and measurements of the hurricane itself (thanks to NOAA hurricane hunters).

              I've made a summary here: https://community.windy.com/topic/37123/understand-hurricane-tracking-forecast-and-measurements

              David Polášek (Windy.com)

              S 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 1
              • S
                SuperDave8000 @David Polášek | Premium
                last edited by

                @David-Polášek We understand that Windy cannot show realtime accurate wind speeds. But with a storm carrying 70+ knts, we still wonder why the forecast of this exact storm doesn't FORECAST any speeds at this level. I understand averages - and if they're taken across an hour's time, they would show much lower speeds. But the SAILOR in this situation saw 70+ winds go by.

                It suggests that the models on Windy present themselves as optimistic, and that we need to adjust our expectations.

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                • S
                  SuperDave8000 @David Polášek | Premium
                  last edited by

                  @David-Polášek Actually, now that I think further, I imagine this is just an aspect of the best mode for Windy to use "on average". Showing averages across an hour or more can help show a day's forecast with better clarity. So maybe this is simply a problem with the best Windy forecast mode "on avergage".

                  So perhaps what we could use would be a pessimistic or more granular forecast when we enable Hurricane tracker.

                  SutyS 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • SutyS
                    Suty Administrator @SuperDave8000
                    last edited by

                    @SuperDave8000 Hi, personally, I would recommend checking Wind gust layer in Windy as well, since it shows peaks of the windspeed in the last 3 hours so it can better visualize these threats.

                    1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                    • Bob ArcherB
                      Bob Archer
                      last edited by

                      Ok... also question about the visualization of the Hurricane tracker. Why does the wind animation show a hurricane location so much different from the like hurricane icon is showing? For example:

                      Where is the hurricane? Is it where the hurricane icon is, or there the center of the swirling wind is?

                      f22dd68b-0ce2-4c1b-991e-9dfe521b7bab-image.png

                      idefix37I 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                      • idefix37I
                        idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Bob Archer
                        last edited by idefix37

                        @Bob-Archer

                        The hurricane is where the satellite and weather radar show it to be. These layers are in near real time.

                        On the other hand, the wind layer from all models is a forecast, as is the NHC tracker. The sources of this forecast data are not synchronized and are not in real time.
                        We may assume that the official track from NHC (that you call the hurricane icon) is a consensus between several models and so it is probably more precise than each individual model.

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