ECMWF
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@idefix37
At least in Open Data the operational IFS forecasts have been directly extended to 360 hours without any change on the data location. Example: https://data.ecmwf.int/forecasts/20241117/00z/ifs/0p25/oper/Technically it could be working out differently in paid real-time subscriptions, which I have no knowledge about. But even if you can't manage to get that data, you can use Open Data as a fallback option. Of course it's only a fallback since the resolution is lower, but compared to AIFS (which is also in 0.25-deg resolution) it won't be worse.
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For the next IFS upgrade, Cycle 49r1, planned for
October 2024, the HRES and the ENS control are being
made bit identical. Both will run to 15 days for 00 and
12 UTCFrom IFS Cycle 50r1, planned for October 2025, we
will stop producing the current ENS control, and the
data stream that is currently called the HRES will be
called 'ENS control' instead. This single, unperturbed
forecast will continue to be made available earlier
than the ensemble perturbed members, in line with
the agreed dissemination schedule -
@zekun_ni
So you would accept a lower resolution just to have 5 days more in the forecast, with low accuracy? -
Hi all, these are official ECMWF release notes regarding 49r1.
HRES is indeed forecasting 15 days now:
We are working on acquiring and using the new data as soon as possible. I can't give any precise day yet though.
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F Filip_K referenced this topic on
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@idefix37 yes, that doesn’t matter to me
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@WorldwideCycloneTracking I don’t think that they are now low accuracy, in fact, they are as quite as or more accurate than the GFS model...
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Thanks for your attention on this matter. Waiting for further updates from you and Windy!
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@Filip_K Thank you so much. It means a lot to me. But it makes me wonder will it be available in map form?
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Hi @WCT, yes, there is no need not to show it in all its glory (:
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@Filip_K Thank you so much !!!
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@Filip_K As far as I can see the update is now online. Thank you very much for your effort!
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@zekun_ni aktualizacja nie zawiera map na 16 dni a chyba model miał zawierać wizualizacje
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Hi @WCT, yes, there is no need not to show it in all its glory (:
Aktualizacja danych jest ale widzę że nie wprowadziliście wizualizacji danych modelu na 16 dni czy będzie taka aktualizacja ? Czy tylko na 10 dni ?
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Hi @przemo1986,
the forecast is available in detail (lower panel) for full 15-16 days already (basic forecast, meteogram and airgram), where it was previously extended by AIFS. Full functionality for extended forecast, like map visualization, will be available in next version, which will be available in following weeks.Thank You for Your patience.
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@Filip_K I see on desktop V44.0.1 at least (iOS 18 with Windy app V43.0.4 does not have it) that ECMWF extends out to 15 days now.
Is that leveraging the AIFS that was previously only in the forecast detail, or is that just the "standard" ECMWF model that @WX-OM mentioned a few weeks back?
Is there any plan to have both versions of the ECMWF available?
Thank you for the hard work!
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@illili
The extended ECMWF model to 15 days is the 49r1 version of the same model. It has nothing to do with the AIFS model based on artificial intelligence. This one is no longer included in Windy.
As usual the new version will be added later in the mobile app, probably with the next update of this app. -
@idefix37 Awesome, thank you for the clarification!
Beyond that, do you know if the team has any intention of adding the AIFS model as its own option at some point? Or any of the Ensemble products they offer?
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@illili
Sorry I’m not in the know. -
@idefix37 No worries, I appreciate the response!
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Hi @illili, we currently have no intention of adding AIFS back. It's resolution and parameter set is very inferior to deterministic version of ECMWF forecast (HRES).
