Record flooding forecast for North Queensland
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Next 5-days cumulative rainfall (ECMWF) North Queensland.
Much like the ~1,660 mm in Feb 2019, only this time the rain will fall in about 20% of the time. Ross River dam is already at 104% (reached 233% capacity last time).
This rainfall intensity just looks deranged. Already getting emergency evacuation warnings on the phone to let people know it's coming. The central area in that rainfall contour is over 2 meters of rainfall in 5 days.
It began about 8 hours back so this forecast is real. Should clear up Wednesday next week.
Dam rose 4.5% in 3 hours this afternoon. There's 4 to 5 days of heavier rain to come.
Good news, if you're a duck.
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@Sinewave1
And ACCESS is even worse just north of Townsville
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I don't usually use Access as it produces some odd predictions and its rainfall map is often inconsistent (very optimistic). It's Ok over 2-day periods at higher resolutions but I find the UK version is better for longer periods. ECM has proven itself overtime with rainfall events. I think it's more dependable over 5 days. That said, the situation did move further north tonight because it's a coastal trough rather than discrete tropical storm but it'll drift south again in the morning.
An old lady fell into a drain near a shopping center and disappeared. QLD govt deployed water rescue teams to Townsville tonight to try and prevent these sorts of losses, but the drains are very large and swift-flowing in that area. They were looking for her in the harbor this afternoon as that's where it flows to.
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Here's why the rain deflected up the coast, this huge cell dropped the pressure under it. Very tall tops in these thunderstorms.
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2:15 AM on the 1st of February
The large super-cell near Cairns is still building but drifting SSE, as expected, and bringing the rain and wind back to the Townsville area before dawn.
Radar at 2:10 AM - rain converging again.
Latest ECM Cumulative-Rain next 5-days still looks extreme.
Maximum forecast winds remain below Category-1 so power should remain on.
Dam went up another 5% after the rain eased.
Next 2 to 3 days should be interesting.
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415 mm received past 28 hours (after a lull over night).
Rain is supposed to get much heavier the next 2 days. Surprisingly little lightning. Dam rose 20%. Everything is saturated and it's getting quite cool. Had a heatwave before this.
IR satellite: ... tops are decreasing
Rain Radar: ... rain definitely moved back to Townsville area.
Cumulative-Rain (next 4-days): Still looking extreme
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Cumulative-Wind (next 4-days): ... much windier.
Dam level:
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Update: Sunday 12:00 Noon
Tracking for a >1,500 mm total by Wednesday. Another 800 mm is forecast. We have received somewhere close to 1 meter of rain so far. Hard to tell how much because the wind. Things have got serious today, I hear sirens and an emergency release of water from the dam is set to occur.
Not sure when but everyone is being warned that it's coming. Some time after 12 Noon (hour and 15 mins ago).
Latest Situation
If the forecast further 800 mm of rain falls by Wednesday, the capacity of the dam will rise to more than ~240%. So emergency release flooding of Townsville (as per 2019) now looks unavoidable. Possibly before dark today (in ~6 hours). The dam has been flood spilling since Friday, but the storage still rose 60% since then.
It took 3 weeks to build to this in 2019, but this time it's taken 3 days. I live on the coast and the wind and rain is crazy for the past 24 hours.
Radar:
Wind & Convergence (all ECMWF forecasts below)
Rain Thunder ... that's just nuts
Cumulative Rain to midnight Wednesday ... still looking crazy
Of course there are saltwater crocodiles ... keeps you on your toes.
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@Sinewave1
It is hard to imagine an intense rain event with such cumulative amounts of rain. I remember during a professional trip in the sugar cane sector, a weekend in Townsville spent in particular snorkeling on the Great Barrier Reef. So far from the current situation.
In addition, the rapid filling of the Ross River dam must be a little scary. -
Yes, got people on edge near the river. Got a break for a few hours this afternoon but rain and wind are back. Dam is ~168% so one night of heavy rain from flood gates having to open 100%. Ultimate holding capacity during a flood peak is 250%, but emergency gate opening will be nearer to 200%.
ECM cumulative-rainfall to Wednesday is still 730 mm to 900 mm. Hoping conditions improve tomorrow as it only has to slow for the spillway to cope.
There are a lot of Lows around. Nothing compelling, but getting the water lower is a priority. Even a tropical low or Cat 1 cyclone in the SE Gulf of Carpentaria is enough to power-up the convergence into this catchment. That's a real possibility.
Cumulative-Rain to Wednesday midnight
Radar
I'm hopeful it'll slowdown tomorrow.
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Rain and wind abated today and the dam level fell by ~3% - crisis averted.
Radar
IR Satellite
Cumulative Rain
Relative Humidity
Pressure
Cumulative Wind
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@Sinewave1
So this is typically from WX Cycle :) -
Rain eased but it did not stop. Every 6 to 7 years the weather goes full-retard, and this is that year.
But it keeps it cool.
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Reports of the ending of the wet season have been a bit optimistic.
Over the past three nights another ~470 mm of cumulative rain fell. (559.4 mm for all of March so far) and another ~300 mm is forecast, which could easily turn out to be another 600 mm, as that has been the trend this year. Just finished scrubbing the walls and doors with bleach, to remove the mold that suddenly grew out of nowhere last month.
Must be a very green continent from space at the moment.
