Why does the forecast change after the model update?

F Hill

Hi everyone,

I’ve noticed something strange when using Windy with the MeteoBlue model. I understand that the model is updated every 12 hours. For example, this morning after the update, the forecast for today showed a high of 66°F at 2pm.

However, a couple of hours later, the forecast data changed again – and now it looks like MeteoBlue had already predicted the real Temperaturen of 70°F earlier, even though that wasn’t shown right after the update. In the “Forecast vs Observed” comparison, it now seems as if the model got it right from the beginning.

Why does this happen? Why aren’t the most accurate predictions shown immediately after the model update, but only appear retroactively as if they were always there?

Thanks in advance for any clarification!

F Hill

Hi Community,

today it happened again. MBLUE Update After 11am: 69F at 1pm. but 4 Hours later at 3pm without a New Update forecast was edited and shows 74F at 1pm. It seems that MBLUE changed Forecast for the past Hours.

Can someone help to explain it? Thank you!

idefix37

@F-Hill

How do you know that Meteoblue has not been updated in the meantime ?

F Hill

@idefix37
This is my question actually! I think I missunderstand something.

I did some Screenshots today. 11:30am, 3pm and 6pm. On the last Screenshot (I think) you can See that MBLUE (NEMS Model) was updated 7 Hours ago. Which was at 11am. But as I said. I can be wrong.

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idefix37

@F-Hill
NEMS is only one of the Meteoblue AI consensus model.
I don’t know if in Windy Meteoblue model data is updated at same time as NEMS. Only an administrator or a developer is able to answer this question.

F Hill

This post is deleted!