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    The 2025 Hurricane Season Begins: What Can We Expect?

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    • Jari SochorováJ
      Jari Sochorová Administrator
      last edited by Jari Sochorová

      A new hurricane season is underway. It officially begins on May 15 in the Eastern Pacific. Then, on June 1, the season also starts in the Atlantic basin (including the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico) as well as in the Central Pacific region (including the Hawaiian Islands). In all three regions, the official season runs through November 30.

      photo: NOAA; desc: Basins of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific; licence: cc-by
      Basins of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific, NOAA

      The official hurricane season marks the time of year when tropical cyclones are most likely to develop over the warm waters of the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), more than 97% of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic occurs during this designated period.

      However, tropical cyclones can also form outside of this timeframe. The earliest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded formed on March 7, 1908.

      For the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Honolulu, the start of the official season also signals the beginning of regularly scheduled Special Tropical Weather Outlooks, issued four times a day.

      photo: NOAA; desc: Average annual number of named storms and hurricanes; licence: cc
      Average annual number of named storms and hurricanes, NOAA

      An Average Hurricane Season

      According to NHC statistics, the highest number of named storms (meaning tropical cyclones that reach tropical storm or hurricane strength) forms in the Eastern Pacific, with an average of 15 per year. The Atlantic produces around 14 named storms annually. However, tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin poses a greater threat to the U.S. and nearby coastal regions, as those storms are more likely to make landfall.

      Tropical cyclones typically track west to northwest in tropical and subtropical latitudes (between 5° and 30° N). In the Atlantic, this movement often steers storms toward the eastern shores of North America. Meanwhile, in the Northeastern Pacific, storms usually track out to sea, staying well away from the western coast.

      alt text

      photo: NOAA; desc: Daily tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (May–Dec); licence: cc
      Daily tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (May–Dec), NOAA

      Tropical cyclone activity usually reaches its highest levels between August and September. In the Atlantic basin, the season typically peaks around September 10. In the Eastern Pacific, the most active period often occurs a bit earlier, generally toward the end of August.

      photo: CSU/SMN/NOAA; desc: Daily tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific (May–Dec); licence: cc-by
      Forecast number of named storms and hurricanes for the 2025 hurricane season, CSU/SMN/NOAA

      2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

      Current projections indicate that the 2025 hurricane season will be more active than usual in the Atlantic and Northeastern Pacific, while the Central Pacific is expected to see near- or below-normal activity.

      In the Atlantic, Colorado State University (CSU) forecasts 17 named storms, including 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). Although activity is expected to be above average, it may still fall slightly below the extremely active 2024 season. CSU will update its forecast on June 11, July 9, and August 6.

      In the Northeastern Pacific, Mexico’s meteorological service (SMN) predicts 16 to 20 named storms, 8 to 11 hurricanes, and 4 to 6 major hurricanes.

      In the Central Pacific, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects 1 to 4 tropical cyclones. Unlike forecasts for other regions, this outlook includes all storm types, from tropical depressions to hurricanes.

      photo: Windy.com; desc: Windy's Hurricane Tracker; licence: cc
      Windy.com Hurricane Tracker, Windy.com

      Stay Safe

      Be prepared, no matter the forecast. Have a plan for you and your family in case a hurricane threatens. Find safety tips at ready.gov/hurricanes.

      Stay one step ahead with Windy.com. The Hurricane Tracker lets you follow storms from their formation all the way through to forecast updates. You can also explore radar and satellite imagery, plus detailed weather layers to help you stay informed in real-time.

      Media contact: press@windy.com

      R B Kevin AlvesK 3 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 411
      • Jari SochorováJ Jari Sochorová moved this topic from Windy Internal on
      • Ion 7I
        Ion 7
        last edited by

        Hello, it is now called the gulf of America

        stephen powellS 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
        • stephen powellS
          stephen powell @Ion 7
          last edited by

          @Ion-7 only Americans call it Gulf of America and on the map it'll still be Gulf of Mexico. Most people will probably still call it Gulf of Mexico.```

          S. Powell

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • R
            RRD2 @Jari Sochorová | Premium
            last edited by

            @Jari-Sochorová What is NOAA's track record between their storm count and actual storms? Thank you.

            Jari SochorováJ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • B
              BlitheSpirit @Jari Sochorová
              last edited by

              @Jari-Sochorová here in the Southern Hemisphere Cyclone season is just finished Windy should be more aware of its global users

              TZT 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • O
                Oleksiy1 | Premium
                last edited by

                Hi everyone. Can you advice, which forecast model is better for Indian Ocean, India, Pakistan, Oman area.

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                • idefix37I
                  idefix37 Sailor Moderator
                  last edited by idefix37

                  @weatherfan
                  @tweek__tweek
                  Windy community forum is not a place for political discussions. So your posts have been deleted.
                  https://community.windy.com/topic/8680/political-topics-posts-are-not-acceptable

                  1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
                  • Kevin AlvesK
                    Kevin Alves @Jari Sochorová | Premium
                    last edited by idefix37

                    @Jari-Sochorová

                    Thank you

                    1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                    • TZT
                      TZ Administrator @BlitheSpirit
                      last edited by Jari Sochorová

                      @BlitheSpirit Hi, of course we are aware of cyclones in the southern hemisphere, but the post is about Hurricane season. Thank you for your understanding.

                      1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                      • Jari SochorováJ
                        Jari Sochorová Administrator @RRD2
                        last edited by

                        @RRD2 Hi, the forecast accuracy is quite good … partly because NOAA often predicts a range rather than a single number. In both 2024 and 2023, storm activity stayed within those predicted ranges.

                        Year 2024: NOAA forecast (actual):
                        Named storms: 17 to 25 (18)
                        Hurricanes: 8 to 13 (11)
                        Major hurricanes: 4 to 7 (5)
                        Source:
                        NOAA forecast
                        End-of-season summary

                        Year 2023
NOAA forecast:

                        Named storms: 14 to 21 (20)

                        Hurricanes: 6 to 11 (7)

                        Major hurricanes: 2 to 5 (3)

                        Source:
                        NOAA forecast
                        End-of-season summary

                        1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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