ECMWF vs GFS – Which one do you trust more for local forecasts?
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Hi Windy community,
I’ve been using Windy for a while to monitor weather for sailing and hiking trips around the Mediterranean. I often switch between ECMWF and GFS, but I’ve noticed they can sometimes give quite different forecasts — especially for wind speed and rain.
From what I understand:
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ECMWF is generally considered more accurate, especially in Europe, but updates less frequently and isn’t open-source.
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GFS updates more often (every 6 hours) and is free/open, but some say it’s less accurate with local-level predictions.
In your experience, which model do you rely on more — especially for short-range forecasts (1–3 days)?
Do you combine multiple models or stick with one?Curious to hear what others think — particularly users in coastal or mountainous regions!
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I idefix37 marked this topic as a regular topic on
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@Wang-Evelyn-2
Hello,
I don't sail in the Mediterranean, but I rely on the ECMWF for weekly forecasts. The GFS is less stable and exhibits significant variations over time, and its resolution is lower, which is a disadvantage for Mediterranean coastal areas.
In addition to these models, for short periods, I would use ALADIN, ICON D2, and AROME in the Mediterranean, when these high-resolution models are available and are essential for reliable coastal forecasts (coastal breezes, katabatic winds, strong convective events).
