WeatherNext 2 on Windy.com ?!

vhalx

just watched the Google / DeepMind Spot on their new WeatherNext 2 AI Model.

Will, and if yes, when will we see it on Windy.com ?

Thanks!

WeatherMan10

Someone else may jump in to correct me....

The issue with AI models is that they usually (Haven't researched this AI model in particular), they rely heavily on past data rather than the normal NWP models which compute trillions of math equations to calculate the weather you see on windy.com

As I read on another forum earlier today. Someone pointed out that, with a expected SSW event to occur sometime at the end of the month. All the NWP models have predicted some variation of it while the AI models can't "see" it because the last SSW to occur in Nov was 1968 (I believe) so the past data is not there and so the AI models think that it is very rare as such will not happen.

I apologise if is a little critical (or wrong) but hope it gets my point across.

Let us know if you have anymore questions.

(P.S. I am not a Windy Team Member, so wait to see what they say)

jeanr

@vhalx Agreed. As a subscriber, I think it would be awesome to get this state of the art model into Windy. Looking at their blog post, they seem to have much better forecasts than ECMWF:
https://blog.google/technology/google-deepmind/weathernext-2/
Living in a place with regular hurricanes, the resolution and error margin of models like ECMWF are pretty bad (both on the trajectory and wind speeds).

WeatherMan10

@jeanr said in WeatherNext 2 on Windy.com ?!:

they seem to have much better forecasts than ECMWF:

What are you basing this statement off?

Read the article this morning, and as I expected, it uses Machine Learning.

jeanr

@WeatherMan10 you're right, I forgot to post the benchmark:
https://developers.google.com/weathernext/guides/evals
Note that using machine learning is akin to developing sophisticated forecasting heuristics, and it doesn't surprise me that they would handily beat traditional models like ECMWF, which have to solve extremely unstable PDEs, sometimes leading to unstable forecasts within 24 hours of a typhoon

Suty

Hello, I will provide more info here after certain discussion in Windy team, which already started. Thank you for your patience.

PeterHoburg

I would also love to see the WearherNext 2 model get added to Windy!

salamoc

@Suty do you have any update on this?

Suty

@salamoc Unfortunately, now, I don't have any further info about proceeding this new model.