Confidence indication
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Would it be possible to display the confidence in the model accuracy?
For example at this location the wind direction, strength, temperature, etc will be X. What will be the percentage change that it will rain?
Currently the display only displays things as certainties. Rain or no rain. The UK MET office displays the % chance of rain. I prefer windy for various reasons, but miss that feature. -
@JojoS bro just compare the forecasting models
If one model shows it the chance is low to moderate
Is more than two models show it chance is good
And all model show it the chances very high -
@JojoS said in Confidence indication:
Would it be possible to display the confidence in the model accuracy?
For example at this location the wind direction, strength, temperature, etc will be X. What will be the percentage change that it will rain?
Currently the display only displays things as certainties. Rain or no rain. The UK MET office displays the % chance of rain. I prefer windy for various reasons, but miss that feature.I believe that the UK Met office are moving towards that type of forecast in the near future, they have not confirmed if this data will be available to customers (such as windy.com)
If you have time then read this artical by the met office - https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2026/why-probability-is-the-key-to-future-weather-forecasts
Basically, when a weather model is run, they have 1 member (when they run the model once) which is run at a high resolution and this is called the Operations run. This is what is displayed on windy, when you click on ECMWF, GFS for example, you are viewing the Operation Run. Then they will run the model again and again with different starting conditions, (not by much, changing a temperature by 1c in one place, etc). This is the ensemble, ECMWF run theirs 50 times each run for example.
The UK Met Office want to move towards their MOGREPS Model which is an ensemble model rather than just 1 operation run. Then use MOGREPS to look at a location, and work out the probability of rain by looking at the ensemble run, if only 3/10 runs have rain then there would be a 30% probability of rain.
Since they are doing that, I would imagine that data should become available to the public.
I hope that makes sense.
(@idefix37, Please read through it and make sure I have not made any major mistakes when explain it. Thanks)
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@WeatherMan10
What you call the Operation run is the “Deterministic” version of the model. It is what Windy shows.
Most of the weather models are running also an “Ensemble” version. It is this version with its different members which allows to estimate the probability or the confidence of the forecast. But Windy does not display any data from this type of model calculation.
See this article to understand the difference between “Deterministic” and “Ensemble” version.
In Windy, the only solution to replace “Ensemble” forecast data is to compare the different models in the “Compare” or “Wind” tables. -
One could imagine Windy displaying the confidence or the predictability percentage, but only for parameters in the Basic panel. By clicking on a timestamp, this display could be achieved by indenting the following columns. Just as an option.
