Which forecast model do you trust the most for local conditions?
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Hi everyone,
I’ve been using Windy for a while now, mostly to check wind and rain before outdoor plans, but I’ve noticed that different forecast models sometimes show very different results for the same location. ECMWF, GFS, and others can vary quite a bit, especially a few days out.
For those of you who use Windy regularly, which model has been the most accurate in your area? Do you usually stick to one model, or compare several before making a decision?
Just trying to get a better idea of what works best in real-world conditions. Thanks.
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@Bogan-Silver Be careful, what works for me or others may not be what works for you. Be patient and compare model forecasts to what actually happens at your location. Also note that one model may be better in some respects and another model may be better in other respects. For example, I'm usually focused on forecast low temperature during the cool seasons and tropical storms during hurricane season. And it is also possible what you observe about model forecast versus reality depends on the season. For example on that, precipitation forecasts are hit and miss in my area during seasons when rain comes from pop up storms versus more reliable during seasons when rain commonly comes from fronts moving west to east across the area.
With those caveats, when I'm paying attention to it, the ECMWF seems to be what I rely on for low temperature predictions, but I also pay attention to the iPhone Weather app. For tropical storms, also ECMWF, but I also pay attention the NOAA NHC.
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@Bogan-Silver, I'll second what @aih has said
For me, I am most concerned about low temperatures and storms. The one that works best for me is UKV (The UK Met Office High Resolution model for the UK) as it has a higher resolution that ECMWF, GFS....
Have a look at the different models available for your location, usually for places that can have different weather over the span of a few miles such as coastal environments, the higher resolution models can perform better. The lower the number next to the model, the higher the resolution it is. So 4km is higher then 9km
