Medicane

[Gkikas LGPZ]

... forecast for 1st of April 2026

It is a similar situation like this one (medicane "Zinon" 16-19 Nov 2017)
https://community.windy.com/topic/4935/medicane/1?_=1774519190691

and this one (medicane "Ianos" 17-18 Sep. 2020)

https://community.windy.com/topic/13617/a-medicane/1?_=1774519190695

See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Ianos

[idefix37]

@Gkikas-LGPZ
But don’t medicanes develop in autumn when the Mediterranean Sea is warm enough.
However it seems to show a warm core at 600hPa, which is the sign of a tropical-like phenomenon.

[Gkikas LGPZ]

@idefix37
Yes, they are more usual in autumn.
But SST is not the only factor.
They require incursion of colder air to produce instability usually related to a deep, coldcore, cut-off low.
See "development and characteristics"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediterranean_tropical-like_cyclone

ECMWF today's forecast is not in agreement with forecasts from other centers.
We'll wait and see!

P.S.
Two weeks ago (15-3-2026) another medicane (named "Samuel" or "Jolina") formed over Central Mediterranean Sea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Samuel