Why is Wind speed in hurricanes so wrong?
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Windy needs to get the Winds right... kind of a poetic necessity. :)
I agree with many that that the wind data sets (wind & wind gusts) are are not easy to nail at all - let alone consistently. But I truly believe it needs to be mastered over time... especially in the angry weather world we have brought ourselves.
I think Ventusky is making a good effort here (though not sure on data accuracy audits re wind).
When Cat5 Matthew rolled thru Florida last year - the wind data projections were wildly off the further out from the storm centers.. useless actually.
When I looked that the micro-local Dark Sky wind speed projections... they were spot on.
I think that (in the end) there needs to be a artful balance between macro and micro data. That said: when you are in a storm - most want to know what is going to happen to me where I am... and those we love.
Master the winds... Windy!
Stay safe everyone....
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Windy states very clearly that winds are arrived at using all relative, applicable and resourceful data and they are defined. The arrows represent wind velocity, (relative speed and direction), within a certain volume suspended above the surface. There may be a billion directions and speeds in that volume, but the one chosen represents the speed and direction expressing the central or typical value in a set of data, in particular the mode, median, or, (most commonly), the mean.****
IMO windy is a great tool-very discerning engineering.
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Steve, this is great and I thank you (I live in Florida)
A better work around is take the measurement at 100 meters or 500 meters.
This is a compromise of sorts.
This is a worthwhile project and may save many lives here.
I am reposting on Facebook with some editing. all the tool bars and are can be distracting. I wish you could do false colour white green and blue.THank you.
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@Mike-Boyle
If you need any help in evaluation let me know.
I'm a retired electronic/ computer technician.
Boylemike1@aol.com -
@Siff I get what you're saying, but you can't really compare this to the general media. Modern entertainment journalism just makes stuff up. They don't care. Their information comes from the aether. They just want you to keep watching through the commercials to the next segment. They'd say the winds are made of explosive gas and are gusting at Mach 2.5 if it was believable.
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Please at least post a notice of wind info not being related to actual real time experience. I used this to track storm as my daughter and crewof S/Y Ocean Star are stranded in Tortola. I was am so confused and it absolutely added to all the stress!!! Did not know what info to trust.
Finally realized the tracking portion is the only real time data that is helpful . All that other effort to post data is USELESS if it is not actual experience in real time. -
Your wright
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I am amazed at the accuracy of Windy hurricane 'forecasts'. OK the max wind speed is off, but you can tell the severity of the storm by its size and color bands. I kept some screen grabs captured last week using the european model and noticed Windy 'forecast' for Irma was spot on (going up west coast of Florida starting Sunday 10 Sept). I now am looking at forecast of Jose for Sept 18 ....wow a monster off the USA east coast and yet another hurricane forming at 20N 40W (while the GFS model does not show this at all). FABULOUS TOOL, CONGRATULATIONS!
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@Siff The explanation makes perfect sense from a data science perspective. The grid is aggregating data...it is a window function. The simplest example is an average (rectangular window function). Take the average of 10, 10, 20, & 80. The average is 30. Clearly, 80 was included, but the output (30). When the OP says that it "smoothes" away extremal data, they literally mean smooth:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SmoothingThat said, there are better methods that can preserve extremal measurements. These are called "High Resolution Schemes" or "Total Variation Diminishing" methods:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-resolution_scheme
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_variation_denoisingThese let you recover data like this:
The challenge with using these for weather is scale and computing power.
Stay safe out there!
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@Siff The sources that are providing the data sets for the likes of windy.com, has been proven to be selective in what data they distribute. For example the reporting of Earthquakes - Dutchsinse (A YouTuber who operates a channel warning various parts of the world of any imminent earthquake related threats) regularly demonstrates examples of earthquakes being reported on other nations websites, (other meaning non-US) but not by the USGS. This is a regular occurrence. Ergo if the source is unreliable why bother using its data?
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@Ricky_Lightning See my post, this is not a "data withholding" problem. It's math. There are only so many ways to aggregate a bunch of measurements into one while preserving the character of the data.
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@meteo-GR what would be the point in comparing the two as you've suggested? The source of the data in both examples, is from the same source.
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Why are the rain and wind scales not high enough for purposes in hurricanes and unusual weather?
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@Ottavs Because it is showing averages, not peak measurements.
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My wind scale only goes up to 60 Kt.
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@Ottavs Right. It's showing averages. You could have 3 measurements for a city, for example, 50mph, 50mph, and a gust of 150mph. The average is 83mph.
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Rain scale only goes up to 1.2 in.
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I think Irma is averaging more than any one component of 60. Sustained winds were reported at 175+. The wind scale offers colors for only up to 60.
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@Ottavs It's only measuring how much is dropping for that hour, it's not adding up all the rain over time to a single area. 1.2 inches of rain in an hour is a lot.
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@Ottavs First of all, it's in knots, not mph. Second, sustained wind measurements are much more complicated:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_windBasically, it's a 1 minute measurement. That's it. Windy is showing you the average wind speed for an hour. They could show you only the max wind speeds everywhere for the hour, but it would likely be very misleading.
