Incorrect Data - Bella Coola, BC, Canada

[Tmanok]

Hi There,

Largely I find the data used and presented by Windy to be relatively accurate and acceptable for forecasting. Especially where I live, in Victoria, BC, I find that the weather is reliably predicted and fairly well reported. However, I have noticed while traveling this summer that Windy is upwards of 12⁰C incorrect along the Central and Northern Coast. For instance, it is 33⁰C where I am standing according to three thermometers of various brands, on the mostly exposed riverbank near Hagensborg. Meanwhile, the airport in Bella Coola is reporting 28⁰C, which is fairly close and acceptable in difference. But the Windy report for today is 16⁰C in both Bella Coola and Hagensborg....

It makes me wonder if ECMWF / et al need to be corrected or if Windy requires correction. The difference in winter temperatures would likely be even more concerning and possibly life threatening for this valley. Actually, heat stroke is pretty life threatening on its own I suppose, and that really is the weather we're experiencing here.

Here's a simple source for the airport that I found: https://clearweather.ca/dev/maponly_stnid.py?stnid=HBC08FB011&obtype=allwx I am certain that additional sources could be located. For a less independent, but more authoritative source, the Federal Government is reporting the exact same temperature as the airport for Bella Coola: https://weather.gc.ca/en/location/index.html?coords=52.370,-126.761

Thanks,

Triston Line

Weather data from the independent source:
UTC - BCF904 HAGENSBORG 2 BC, elev 47m, BC forestry

Day Time Wind Temp/Dew RH R1hr
kmh deg_C % mm
01 11:00 E 02 6.0/5.1 94 0.0
01 12:00 ESE 02 5.3/4.6 95 0.0
01 13:00 E 00 4.4/4.0 97 0.0
01 14:00 ESE 01 4.4/3.8 96 0.0
01 15:00 E 00 7.7/5.5 86 0.0
01 16:00 E 00 14.2/7.3 63 0.0
01 17:00 ESE 01 17.2/4.2 42 0.0
01 18:00 NE 06 19.4/1.8 31 0.0
01 19:00 ENE 05 21.9/2.1 27 0.0
01 20:00 E 07 25.3/-0.7 18 0.0

BCF904: 3 day model 10 day model Zoom View Stn info

UTC - BCH47121 BELLA COOLA BC, elev 1160m, BC highways

Day Time Wind Temp/Dew RH P10m P1hr S1hr SDpt
kmh deg_C % mm mm cm cm
01 12:00 MMM MM 7.1/ 1.0 165
01 13:00 MMM MM 7.6/ 1.0 165
01 14:00 MMM MM 8.4/ 164
01 15:00 MMM MM 9.8/ 163
01 16:00 MMM MM 11.4/ 162
01 17:00 MMM MM 12.7/ 2.0 163
01 18:00 MMM MM 14.9/ 160
01 19:00 MMM MM 16.3/ 160
01 20:00 MMM MM 18.3/ 158
01 21:00 MMM MM 18.2/ 0.0 158

BCH47121: 3 day model 10 day model Zoom View Stn info

UTC - BCH47123 BELLA COOLA PRECIP BC, elev 20m, BC highways

Day Time Wind Temp/Dew RH P10m P1hr S1hr SDpt
kmh deg_C % mm mm cm cm
01 12:00 MMM MM 8.2/4.0 75 0.0
01 13:00 MMM MM 8.9/4.0 70
01 14:00 MMM MM 10.9/4.0 61
01 15:00 MMM MM 13.7/3.0 49
01 16:00 MMM MM 16.2/4.0 43
01 17:00 MMM MM 18.4/2.0 33
01 18:00 MMM MM 19.2/4.0 37
01 19:00 MMM MM 19.0/5.0 40 0.1
01 20:00 MMM MM 20.2/4.0 34 0.0
01 21:00 MMM MM 21.3/6.0 37 0.0

BCH47123: 3 day model 10 day model Zoom View Stn info

UTC - CVBD BELLA COOLA AIRPORT BC, elev 38m, MSC auto hourly

Day Time Wind/Gst Temp/Dew RH R1hr P1hr Pwt SDpt MSLP
kmh deg_C % mm mm mm cm MBar
01 11:00 E 00 G04 5.2/4.2 94 0.0 0.0 177.0 1029.3
01 12:00 ESE 01 G02 4.5/3.8 95 0.0 0.0 177.0 1029.3
01 13:00 ENE 02 G05 4.2/3.5 95 0.0 0.0 177.0 1029.3
01 14:00 ENE 00 G05 5.6/4.7 93 0.0 0.0 177.0 1029.1
01 15:00 N 00 G01 10.2/6.3 77 0.0 0.0 177.0 1028.8
01 16:00 WSW 02 G03 14.5/4.1 49 0.0 0.0 177.0 1028.1
01 17:00 NNE 03 G11 17.1/2.1 36 0.0 0.0 177.0 1027.0
01 18:00 ESE 01 G07 20.5/2.7 31 0.0 0.0 177.0 1026.0
01 19:00 ENE 07 G17 24.3/2.8 25 0.0 0.0 177.0 1024.6
01 20:00 ENE 06 G23 25.7/-0.8 17 0.0 0.0 177.0 1023.8
01 21:00 NE 10 G18 27.2/0.7 18 0.0 0.0 177.0 1023.0
01 22:00 ENE 05 G10 28.1/0.3 17 0.0 0.0 177.0 1022.1

CVBD: 3 day model 10 day model Zoom View Stn info

UTC - CVBDM BELLA COOLA AIRPORT BC, elev 38m, MSC auto 10 minutes

Day Time Wind/Gst Temp/Dew RH P10m R1hr P1hr SDpt
kmh deg_C % mm mm mm cm
01 20:20 NE 03 G24 26.4/-0.4 17 0.0
01 20:30 NE 06 G21 26.4/0.1 18 0.0
01 20:40 NE 16 G26 26.4/-1.3 16 0.0
01 20:50 MMM 05 G11 27.3/1.6 19 0.0
01 21:00 NE 10 G18 27.2/0.7 18 0.0 0.0 0.0
01 21:10 NE 10 G16 27.0/-0.9 16 0.0
01 21:20 NNE 04 G13 27.6/1.0 18 0.0
01 21:30 NE 10 G20 27.3/0.3 17 0.0
01 21:40 SW 02 G13 27.9/0.5 17 0.0
01 21:50 S 06 G13 28.3/1.8 18 0.0
01 22:00 ENE 05 G10 28.1/0.3 17 0.0 0.0 0.0
01 22:10 WSW 03 G09 28.5/1.2 17 0.0
01 22:20 NE 07 G13 28.2/-1.2 15 0.0
01 22:30 SW 05 G13 28.1/-2.7 13 0.0
01 22:40 WSW 17 G24 28.0/1.3 18 0.0

CVBDM: 3 day model 10 day model Zoom View Stn info

UTC - CYBD Bella Coola BC, elev 36m, NavCan manned

Day Time Wind/Gst Temp/Dew P6hr Visi Wx Cld COp Rmk
kmh deg_C mm km
01 13:00 N 02 GMM 4.3/3.5 24.1 NOWX SLP292
01 14:00 N 01 GMM 6.8/5.1 24.1 NOWX SLP290
01 15:00 N 02 GMM 11.4/5.7 24.1 NOWX 0 SLP288
01 16:00 N 02 GMM 14.4/4.0 24.1 NOWX SLP281
01 17:00 ENE 06 GMM 17.7/2.3 24.1 NOWX SLP270
01 18:00 E 04 GMM 20.8/2.9 0.0 24.1 NOWX 0 SLP259 DENSITY ALT 500FT
01 19:00 ENE 11 GMM 24.9/0.2 24.1 NOWX SLP244 DENSITY ALT 1000FT
01 20:00 E 08 G28 26.6/-1.7 24.1 NOWX SLP237 DENSITY ALT 1200FT
01 21:00 E 07 GMM 27.4/-0.7 24.1 NOWX 0 SLP228 DENSITY ALT 1300FT
01 22:00 SE 04 GMM 28.1/0.1 24.1 NOWX SLP219 DENSITY ALT 1400FT

CYBD: 3 day model 10 day model Zoom View Stn info

UTC - CYBDAUT Bella Coola BC, elev 36m, NavCan auto

Day Time Wind/Gst Temp/Dew Visi Wx Cld COp P1hr Rmk
kmh deg_C km mm
01 11:00 SE 03 GMM 5.5/4.3
01 12:00 SE 03 GMM 4.6/4.2
01 13:00 ENE 02 GMM 4.3/3.5
01 14:00 E 01 GMM 6.8/5.1
01 15:00 SE 02 GMM 11.4/5.7
01 16:00 SSW 02 GMM 14.4/4.0
01 17:00 ENE 06 GMM 17.7/2.3
01 18:00 E 04 GMM 20.8/2.9
01 19:00 ENE 11 GMM 24.9/0.2
01 20:00 E 08 G28 26.6/-1.7
01 21:00 E 07 GMM 27.4/-0.7
01 22:00 SE 04 GMM 28.1/0.1

CYBDAUT: 3 day model 10 day model Zoom View Stn info

Help: column headings precipitation models

[idefix37]

@Tmanok

It makes me wonder if ECMWF / et al need to be corrected or if Windy requires correction.

Hi,
No, this local inaccuracy in temperature forecasts from the ECMWF model is due to the position of its grid points, which differs between models.
In this region of sea inlets in the middle of high mountains, it is clear that some models can provide low temperature forecasts if their grid points around the location are all situated at high altitudes since the temperature at a given location is the interpolation of the temperature at nearest grid points.
Choose the best model for temperature in the Compare table.

You can also check the Observation vs forecast feature.
At Bella Coola airport station which is displayed in Windy, Meteoblue is the best model for temperature forecast over several days (Meteoblue is a non-gridded model). NAM is the best for wind.

[Tmanok]

Thank you very much for taking the time to respond to my concerns and questions. Your answer makes a lot of sense, thank you. For a global model, I can see how and why the precision might be limited and due to geography also therefore causing inaccuracies. It is, however, surprising that additional points could not be made or centered on all of the cities of the world, you might even think Urban centres being where 99% of people live would make for the most relevant data... Perhaps some misprioritization or perhaps it's simply too complex to make a wonky model. But at 1000M elevation, the ground was indeed still covered in snow during those days. And the air temperature may have been closer to the forecasted temperature.

Thank you for reminding me of the observed temperature vs forecasted. Have a great day,

Triston