GFS model wind speed reduce a lot
-
I notice the GFS model wind speed reduce a lot since this year. For example the newest GFS model 06Z 22-06, 66 hours later 00Z 25-06. The other website which is Tropical Tidbits show 64kt 118km/h (deep red brown to purple) size much bigger than windtv ( I set 64kt 118km/h as white colour). I understand that GFS model results sometimes is extremely high wind speed while EC model results always is low. But I think the wind speed reduced for GFS model is little too much. I have used Tropical Tidbits since 2013 and windtv since 2022.
-
@Bunnyman-said-DONE-Smith
The ECMWF model does not display lighter winds than GFS, especially around tropical cyclones because it is able to forecast the wind with a higher resolution (9km) than GFS (23 km).
See screenshots of the typhon you are referring to, at same model update today 06Z and at CEST time (UTC+2).
In my customized color scale, bright green is 65 to 82kt (Cat1 values but w/10min-wind) and bright yellow is higher than 85 kt (Cat2 but w/10min-wind).
-
Dear idefix37 moderator
I think you misunderstand my question. Two photo that I upload is about GFS. I mentioned EC model is about this model most of time give out higher pressure and lower wind speed for tropical cyclones. Windy make EC model wind speed for tropical cyclones closing to actual wind rad like 34kt 64kt etc and that is what I like and totally is fine while Tropical Tidbits is lower wind speed and smaller wind rad which is underestimated.
The main question that I would like to ask did you company reduced the wind speed for GFS model in early this year? Because I noticed that I set to black colour with 110km/h was closed to Tropical Tidbits 118km/h and now drop to around 92km/h is closed to Tropical Tidbits 118km/h. The 64kt wind rad become much smaller than last year on windy. If the output date did change, then may I asked again will there any function that allow user change output date for the wind speed rather than just change colour settings? Thank you.
There is different on 64 kt Wind Rad area. Bright green colour which is 64kt Rad did not cover N, NW and W direction while Tropical Tidbits 64kt Rad did cover N, NW and W direction. Since you show that is 23-6 18 UTC+2 and Tropical Tidbits can only show 0, 6, 12, 18 UTC+0. To be fair, I screen cap 24-6 2 UTC+8 => 23-6 20 UTC+2 and also 23-6 18 UTC+0 with today 06z 22-6 GFS Model. The 64kt Rad still did not cover NW and N direction. It used to be closed to Tropical Tidbits and now the 64kt Rad becomes much smaller that is why I ask such question.
-
@Bunnyman-said-DONE-Smith
Hi,
I fully understood your question, but I didn't answer it.
I only responded to your comment about the European model underestimating wind strength compared to GFS forecasts.
Apparently, you believe Windy downgrades GFS forecasts because you compare them to Tropical Tidbits visualizations, which you consider the absolute reference. I won't answer your question, firstly because I'm not part of Windy, even if I can’t imagine that Windy downgrades the GFS forecasts.
I have a question: does Tropical Tidbits displays wind speeds over 10 minutes, or do they extrapolate them over 1 or 2 minutes using specific algorithms? -
I am a little surprised that you are not part of Windy as moderator. I answer your question about Tropical Tidbits as I was email to the website owner. He answered that The 10-meter wind speed output is directly from the GFS model without modification. The output is not tied to a specific temporal average but rather is spatially averaged over the model grid cell.
Is that because of business secret so you cannot answer my question? If you say yes then I will not ask this question any further. If no then it is so strange that you avoid to answer my question first and then admit you won't answer my question. -
I am a little surprised that you are not part of Windy as moderator
I’m only a user with special rights, just trying to help Windy users on the community forum.
it is so strange that you avoid to answer my question first and then admit you won't answer my question.
I did not answer your question because I have no information regarding a hypothetical change to the GFS wind speed visualization by Windy.
-
Thanks again for replying. Seems only windy tech staff can find out the problem.
