Percentage Predictor
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This is meaningless, difficult to interpret by the average user and at best a distraction. I think it just creates unnecessary clutter on the screen and should be removed. Who agrees?
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@In2deep said in Percentage Predictor:
This is meaningless, difficult to interpret by the average
I don’t agree. This is the predictably, expressing the certainty of the forecast. So it is really useful.
See a related thread. -
I think it should be renamed "confidence".
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I am not so sure about that. The term "confidence" seems more appropriate for a model where the forecast confidence level is calculated based on the spread of results among its ensemble members.
The “predictability” criterion appears to factor in—in addition to the spread across multiple models—the inherent difficulty of the forecast based on weather type (e.g., anticyclonic conditions versus rainy or windy conditions, or, worse, thunderstorms). This refers daily to the ease or difficulty of forecasting the weather. And it tries to answer the question: is the weather easy to predict today?
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@idefix37
With that explanation, I agree with you on that, confidence is the wrong word.
However...now I'm leaning with @in2deepAre people asking that question everyday?
- How easy is today to forecast?
If they have the answer, are they more or less confident that a model is correct for their location?
If the predictability of every model run is 80% for the next 3 days (which it is starting today for my location)...how is that useful to know? I still need to determine which model is representing my location the best...and that number doesn't help me at all lol
I don't know...I'm sure there was thought and excitement behind this addition, but I don't understand it.
I'd love to hear the thoughts behind it.Maybe I will better understand the usefulness when the What's In This Update article shows up.
