Meteoblue AI - a (smart) merge of all models does not give the best results
-
I am not sure where the exitement is coming from for the Meteoblue AI model and its recent push by the Windy team. As it is AI it should get better in the future, at least I suppose. For now it seems to provide a weighted average from all the available models. The harsh reality is that some models are very inaccurate while others are close to being quite precise. If we mix the precise model with a lot of less reliable information and have this analysed by AI we are not getting something that is better than the best available, but just more average. I see a bright future for the use of AI, if applied in such a way that it is really an added value, crunching lots of data, interpreting, sorting, comparing, etc. But it is not the solution for everything. So, use it wisely and there where it makes sense. And do not push it as if it is a new, better way for getting proper forcasts. As you have already seen in the comments, the 'nerdy' weather user is not happy with this averaging. They know their most trusted models and want to keep using these as they have proven their reliability. Meteoblue AI is not reliable.
-
@Jean-Orr
As Premium user you can set your preferred model as default.
In the mobile app
In the browser version
-
@pvoversc
What is the issue with this model? Meteoblue has been integrated into Windy for many years. It delivers excellent performance, particularly in mountainous regions and other areas. Some users began complaining after the "AI" label was added to its name, even though it was already a machine learning (ML)-based model. I am aware that it is now the default model in the detailed forecast tables for free users; however, as a Premium user, you can choose which models to display in the detailed tables when opening Windy. -
@idefix37 hello, this Mblue AI model default appears on each logon to windy and I don't like this, because my favorite model user default is ECMWF and I have to switch back every time to get it. For now I'm not shure if Méteo blue is the best accuracy model for my location. Please put Mblue in the list choice and don't ovrerride our choices.
Thanks -
@Daniel-Barbieri
Try to enable this setting
-
@idefix37 said in Meteoblue AI - a (smart) merge of all models does not give the best results:
@Daniel-Barbieri
Try to enable this settingI 100% agree with the OP. Over the years, I’ve come to understand the forecast models on Windy for my particular area (wind and waves on the Pacific Ocean outside the Golden Gate Bridge, San Francisco) and find ECMWF as my primary forecast model but I use the others to balance my own internal forecast heuristic to make the decision to go out or not. Clicking through the forecasts is essential for me.
@idefix37 as I have tried to repeatedly tell you, the app has a glitch (updated latest version 51.010107 @suty ). I’ve set the “settings for location forecast” to winds and ECMWF, but when looking at wind for a specific location, the “source” does not change from Meteoblue AI even when I’m clicking through the different forecast models. See screenshot. I see the visuals changing but the source does not so it’s unclear which forecast model is being visualized and knowing the patterns is important to me.
-
@banatmfees hello, same thing for me. Should be a bug.
-
@Daniel-Barbieri
You get this issue when selecting which mode in the forecast table ?
Basic, Meteogram, Wind or Wind&waves… ? -
@idefix37 I found my problem. I had set' always basic wind and model ecmwf' but I click on the < button instead of close setting. It wasn't clear for me this close setting should be record your setting.
Thanks for your help. -
@Daniel-Barbieri
What do you mean with “basic wind” ? There is a “Basic” setting and a “Wind” setting, which corresponds to 2 different table. Could you clarify? -
@idefix37 yes, I use to always start windy (and return to) with wind panel and prediction basic model ECMWF and 15 days scope. The recording of my choices is ok now after setting the right option in the panel you suggest to me.
Thanks. -
@Daniel-Barbieri Have you noticed the same issue with the ECMWF wind gust map ? It now seems to move forward in 3-hour steps instead of 1-hour steps. I am referring specifically to the map layer, not the meteogram. This did not happen before.
-
@Nwatchweather hello, after recording my forecasting options the wind map options are correct as well as the gust wind map one. The 1 hour option is steady if I don't quit windy but the next time I launch it it goes back to 3-hours display.
Note I didn't test every maps but the ones I need are in the same state before the update relative to Mblue AI -
I agree with Daniel Barbieri. I use windy for bay sailing in Florida and the Metoblue AI presents misleading results at best (2-3 mph every day at all times of day, essentially no data) . My preferred is HRRR or ECWF. Please remove the default to Meteoblue AI.
-
@Jean-Orr
As Premium user you can set your preferred model as default.
In the mobile appIn the browser version
-
Long time (but not premium) user here. I'd like to join the choir to make ECMWF the default model on the Basic forecast. Meteoblue is probably the less accurate for my state, so I have to manually switch every time. Please consider it.
Thanks.
Marco -
D David Polášek marked this topic as a question
-
D David Polášek has marked this topic as solved
-
Joining chorus. It’s complete rubbish for US Virgin Islands. I don’t think I’ve ever seen it over 10 knots even when it is blowing 20. I look at my spots and all are white with no wind when I can look outside and see white caps. And you can’t change it for your locations no matter what default you select. You can just compare it to other models they are all orange and red on windy days and blue model is white and blue. Why push a model that Meteoblue even explicitly acknowledges that its wind speed forecasts are significantly less accurate on islands and in close proximity to oceans. I already cancelled but had paid annually. Windy’s response when I complained was cookie cutter. Not much point in windy when it can’t even forecast windy.
-
@Brett-Ellis-2 Regarding to this topic, I can confirm that we will do more changes and adjustments in our next update planned for October. Meteoblue will be completely a default there, however, if you change the default model as a Premium user, it will be respected over the whole app.
We are aware of this unfortunate step between now, but we will do our best to improve this.
-
I agree with your observations, which I also had the opportunity to verify while sailing along the coasts of Western Europe.
its wind speed forecasts are significantly less accurate on islands and in close proximity to oceans.
Wind forecasts at sea near the coast by Meteoblue almost always underestimate actual wind speeds.
I reported it to Meteoblue and a team member explained that near the coast their multimodel system was only selecting the grid points from these models over the land, which provide of course a lower wind forecast than over the sea. This is better for people living there because wind speed and temperature forecasts are defined over the land.
I then suggested that, for a position at sea, they should use only marine grid points. However, the response I received was unclear.Meteoblue even explicitly acknowledges that its wind speed forecasts are significantly less accurate on islands and in close proximity to oceans.
Please could you provide a link to this information ?
I already cancelled but had paid annually. Windy’s response when I complained was cookie cutter. Not much point in windy when it can’t even forecast windy.
I don’t think this is a good idea, because as @suty said, Premium users will have the possibility to choose the default model they want in the detailed forecast tables.
For now, as a Premium user, you can do this as explained in my message above.And you can’t change it for your locations no matter what default you select.
Have you really set a default model, or are you talking about the “5-days forecast” for you Favorites?
