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    Misleading hurricane alert

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    • DavidGAD Offline
      DavidGA | Premium
      last edited by DavidGA

      Windy just sent me an alert that says "Hurricane category 2 Marie expected to arrive in 5 days". I'm in the San Francisco Bay Area.

      Isn't this really misleading? It implies that a Cat 2 hurricane will arrive in 5 days, but what it actually seems to mean is that the hurricane is Cat 2 now. Marie is currently forecast to stop being a hurricane long before it reaches land.

      This alert is needlessly alarmist.

      idefix37I nesroN 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 1
      • idefix37I Offline
        idefix37 Sailor Moderator @DavidGA
        last edited by idefix37

        @DavidGA

        There are 3 data sources for the hurricane layer in your area. Apparently, one of them (UKM) shows Marie heading toward San Francisco Bay—though, as you say, with relatively weak winds. But that could bring heavy rain if the track is correct.

        IMG_4562.jpeg

        This is not confirmed by NHC.

        DavidGAD 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
        • DavidGAD Offline
          DavidGA @idefix37 | Premium
          last edited by

          @idefix37 The UK Met Office model is known to be weaker than the ECMWF for hurricanes, which is pretty much the gold standard at the moment.

          The "NHC" source isn't a model, it's created by hand at the NOAA Hurricane Center.

          Regardless, none of the sources predict a dangerous storm hitting the bay area, and certainly not a "category 2" hurricane.

          The alert is extremely misleading.

          WheatsW 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • WheatsW Offline
            Wheats Meteorologist @DavidGA | Premium
            last edited by Wheats

            @DavidGA Are you hung up on the fact that a hurricane is heading your way (the alerted area) or that it states it's Category 2?

            My opinion, either way one should probably look at some forecast data by now to see if it'll impact them. I also don't believe it needs to state the category. Maybe just - "Hurricane Marie expected to arrive in 5 days" - and let the users/local weather agencies decide if it's threatening or not?

            DavidGAD 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
            • DavidGAD Offline
              DavidGA @Wheats | Premium
              last edited by

              @Wheats The alert says a Cat 2 hurricane will arrive. Even if the forecast is accurate, that is not correct. A storm system will arrive, not a hurricane of any category.

              1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
              • nesroN Offline
                nesro Windy Staff @DavidGA
                last edited by

                Hi @DavidGA
                thank you for reporting this. You are right that the text is confusing. We will change this to something like: "Hurricane Marie expected in 5 days. Now: Cat. 2"

                Tomas Nesrovnal - windy.com developer

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
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