Total Snow accumulation forecasts
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How accurate are the ECMWF total new snow forecasts? at 3 days? 10days? Has anyone evaluated these. I find them fascinating, with maximum I have seen at 543 cm in 10 days on the SE mountains of Greenland. The Andes also have been collecting 2-3 meters of snow in many of these forecasts from June to December. If these are valid, then perhaps we are rebuilding the glaciers?? I watch these forecasts every day. These maximum amounts are also quite sensitive to elevations and appear below the resolution of a 9 km dx model.
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@davematthews
The snow accumulation is not accurate when it’s too close to the rain/now limit. It is often overrated. For very cold region, I it’s may better.
In the Alps we have commonly 2-3 m of snow above 2000-3000m and more, but the glaciers are still melting. What is needed to « rebuild » them, is lower annual mean temperatures. Snow accumulation is one parameter to have glaciers, but the second is a shorter melting season. -
HOW DOES THE SNOW depth and density verify with observations?
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@davematthews
It is a very good research question for a PhD thesis ! -
@davematthews
for further reading (about ECMWF)
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/quality-our-forecasts
