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    Tropical Disturbance (06F) in the Coral Sea turns into a Tropical Cyclone

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    • Gkikas LGPZ
      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator last edited by

      A Tropical Disturbance (06F) in the Coral Sea has a high potential to turn into a tropical cyclone as it moves towards New Zealand at the next days.
      Gale force winds and heavy rain (100 - 200 mm) predicted for the next week (especially on Wednesday) for the South Island of New Zealand.
      We'll monitor it in the coming days.
      https://www.windy.com/?gust,-29.306,173.057,4,i:pressure,m:cPGakKH

      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • Gkikas LGPZ
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

        Today, the TD06F intensified into significant depression,
        attained Category 1 Tropical Cyclone status and named “Fehi”
        by Fiji Meteorological Service.

        Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map for TC “Fehi”
        0_1517213802196_6a4555c6-8b4d-4cfd-98dd-aeaef2575164-εικόνα.png

        and Tropical Cyclone Threat Track Map
        0_1517213922617_5b694143-55f5-4b7d-8da3-e9a46ade0f72-εικόνα.png

        provided by http://www.met.gov.fj/

        Gkikas LGPZ idefix37 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 1
        • Gkikas LGPZ
          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

          Affected areas of New Zealand.
          Source: Meteorological Service of N.Z.

          0_1517217509681_a1c1bdc9-e969-44d8-bf79-bd6471e55535-εικόνα.png

          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
          • idefix37
            idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

            @meteo-gr
            Interesting! But it must be pointed out that a Cat 1 Tropical Cyclone according to the classification of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is not a Cat 1 Hurricane from NHC in the Atlantic area. The first one is « named » when sustained 10-minute winds reach at least 34kt, when the second is « named » when sustained 1-minute winds reach at least 64 kt. In the Atlantic Fehi would not received a name and would be considered as a Tropical Depression. The scales are not the same.

            idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
            • idefix37
              idefix37 Sailor Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

              @idefix37
              In addition
              https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_scales#Australia_and_Fiji

              Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
              • Gkikas LGPZ
                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

                @idefix37
                I never said that "Fehi" is a Hurricane
                (the term is not used in South Hemisphere).
                As she moves southwards (to colder seas) will lose her intensity.
                Although, according to ECMWF forecasts, will be strong enough reaching N.Z.
                with winds 45 gusting 65 kts and accumulated preci. 200 mm.

                idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                • idefix37
                  idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                  @meteo-gr
                  I know you have not talked about a hurricane. It’s more for my own misunderstanding when I saw your information. I have checked if there was a warning for strong winds by Météo France New Caledonia and realized that it was considered as a « moderate tropical storm ».
                  Further to this question, for non-tropical strong winds USA consider the sustained wind as 2-minute average when in Europe and many countries we use the 10-minute average speed (except for aviation). So the « Wind » for ECMWF model is probably based on a 10-minute average speed and GFS on a 2-minute average speed? Which does not give the same values for a same wind. Do you confirm it?

                  Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • Gkikas LGPZ
                    Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

                    @idefix37
                    The 10 (or 2) minutes average, is used in OBSERVATION of wind.

                    The wind we see at ECMWF (or GFS) is a forecast value for 3 hr. period.
                    So, the forecasted wind (also temperature) is not representing the exact wind
                    at the exact location, but is a time-space average
                    (for a 3 hr period in a 9x9km gridbox).

                    Even the conventional observations from surface weather stations (over land),
                    are not used "as is" for input in the model, but are used after an advanced
                    analysis procedure called "4D-Var" (data assimilation).

                    For 4D-Var, read the paragraph "Data input varies"
                    http://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/PT.3.3046

                    idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                    • idefix37
                      idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                      @meteo-gr
                      Thanks

                      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                      • Gkikas LGPZ
                        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

                        "FEHI" reclassified as an extra-tropical cyclone as is moving south,
                        over colder waters.
                        I copy from
                        http://about.metservice.com/our-company/national-weather-services/tropical-cyclones/

                        "Re-classification as an ex-tropical cyclone does not necessarily mean the system has weakened or been downgraded, but rather that it has transformed into a completely different type of weather system. Ex-tropical cyclones may still have considerable potential for severe weather, and under the right meteorological conditions they can intensify and acquire lower pressures than they had before being re-classified. Many of New Zealand’s most severe storms have been ex-tropical cyclones."

                        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                        • Gkikas LGPZ
                          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                          Aftermaths
                          https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/101066524/Live-Flooding-and-heavy-rain-as-storm-hits-NZ

                          1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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