Tropical Disturbance (06F) in the Coral Sea turns into a Tropical Cyclone
A Tropical Disturbance (06F) in the Coral Sea has a high potential to turn into a tropical cyclone as it moves towards New Zealand at the next days.
Gale force winds and heavy rain (100 - 200 mm) predicted for the next week (especially on Wednesday) for the South Island of New Zealand.
We'll monitor it in the coming days.
Today, the TD06F intensified into significant depression,
attained Category 1 Tropical Cyclone status and named “Fehi”
by Fiji Meteorological Service.
Tropical Cyclone Forecast Track Map for TC “Fehi”
and Tropical Cyclone Threat Track Map
provided by http://www.met.gov.fj/
Affected areas of New Zealand.
Source: Meteorological Service of N.Z.
Interesting! But it must be pointed out that a Cat 1 Tropical Cyclone according to the classification of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is not a Cat 1 Hurricane from NHC in the Atlantic area. The first one is « named » when sustained 10-minute winds reach at least 34kt, when the second is « named » when sustained 1-minute winds reach at least 64 kt. In the Atlantic Fehi would not received a name and would be considered as a Tropical Depression. The scales are not the same.
I never said that "Fehi" is a Hurricane
(the term is not used in South Hemisphere).
As she moves southwards (to colder seas) will lose her intensity.
Although, according to ECMWF forecasts, will be strong enough reaching N.Z.
with winds 45 gusting 65 kts and accumulated preci. 200 mm.
I know you have not talked about a hurricane. It’s more for my own misunderstanding when I saw your information. I have checked if there was a warning for strong winds by Météo France New Caledonia and realized that it was considered as a « moderate tropical storm ».
Further to this question, for non-tropical strong winds USA consider the sustained wind as 2-minute average when in Europe and many countries we use the 10-minute average speed (except for aviation). So the « Wind » for ECMWF model is probably based on a 10-minute average speed and GFS on a 2-minute average speed? Which does not give the same values for a same wind. Do you confirm it?
The 10 (or 2) minutes average, is used in OBSERVATION of wind.
The wind we see at ECMWF (or GFS) is a forecast value for 3 hr. period.
So, the forecasted wind (also temperature) is not representing the exact wind
at the exact location, but is a time-space average
(for a 3 hr period in a 9x9km gridbox).
Even the conventional observations from surface weather stations (over land),
are not used "as is" for input in the model, but are used after an advanced
analysis procedure called "4D-Var" (data assimilation).
For 4D-Var, read the paragraph "Data input varies"
"FEHI" reclassified as an extra-tropical cyclone as is moving south,
over colder waters.
I copy from
"Re-classification as an ex-tropical cyclone does not necessarily mean the system has weakened or been downgraded, but rather that it has transformed into a completely different type of weather system. Ex-tropical cyclones may still have considerable potential for severe weather, and under the right meteorological conditions they can intensify and acquire lower pressures than they had before being re-classified. Many of New Zealand’s most severe storms have been ex-tropical cyclones."