Small upgrades in ECMWF model

Gkikas LGPZ

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+45r1

although in Alpha testing, an overall improvement in 2m temperature forecast, particularly for Europe, is expected.

Tomber42

And some new additional parameters.. Not sure if windy should display this

TZ

@meteo-gr Great, thank you!

TZ

@tomber42 The lightning forecast seems interesting. I wonder how does it work (and whether it works at all). If there is some time, we will be experimenting with it.

Gkikas LGPZ

@tz
I don't think there is a lightning FORECAST product in ECMWF.
The lightning parameters mentioned here:
https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+45r1#ImplementationofIFScycle45r1-Weatherparametersandwaves

are about INSTANTANEOUS or averaged total over the PAST 3 or 6 hours, lightning density.
Are lightning data observed by Lightning Imaging Sensors (LIS) located on satellites.

As we know, ICON model provides lightning (thunderstorm) forecasts
https://www.windy.com/overlays?thunder,0.286,-36.694,5

Gkikas LGPZ

... a small correction:
As described here
http://apps.ecmwf.int/codes/grib/param-db?id=228050
the Instantaneous value of total lightning flash density
comes from model parameterisation (not only from satellite data).

Phantom12

@meteo-gr Since I can't contact you in private (restricted pm), I will ask here. As someone who lives in Thessaloniki what should I do to have the most accurate weather forecast? I just take a look at ECMWF and ICON for now but your expertise would be appreciated.

Gkikas LGPZ

@phantom12
Δες το chat

Gkikas LGPZ

@tz
Finally, I think you are right!
ECMWF will soon provide lightning forecasts!
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/media-centre/news/2018/how-predict-lightning

Gkikas LGPZ

ECMWF just published the Spring 2018 Newsletter.
https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/18093-newsletter-no-155-spring-2018
In the Editorial is mentioned that the latest upgrade of ECMWF’s
Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) is scheduled to become operational
on 5 June.
Will include an improvement in 2 m temperature forecast
and forecasts of average lightning activity!

-Windy's developers get ready to integrate these new data!!!