Ensemble view / model comparative behaviour?



  • Generally, the models will emit different data, and thus the output generated by Windy will differ across models (right now there are crass differences for rainfall on NEMS, ICON, and ECMWF in the area of my interest).

    The extent to which models agree probably often is indication of the quality of the (regional) forecast.

    Therefore, I'd like to see an ensemble of the available model data - on a map, over time. For a single location, this is comparatively easy to accomplish as demonstrated by https://kachelmannwetter.com/ch/vorhersage/2657896-zuerich/xltrend

    For maps - well :)

    One idea would be to have multiple IFRAMEs on a single page, keep the synchronized, largely, but have them all render the data of one specific model. Example: I'd be interested in a comparative view of NEMS, ICON, and ECMWF. This could be resolved by having a global time scale for navigation, local read-only time scales on each model for indicating the time of the model, and then showing this all at once?

    Also, having an accessible (as in "user-friendly") way to demonstrate that no one model is right could help in educating people?


  • Sailor

    @duckamuck
    I agree with you it’s should a nice idea to have model comparison diagrams for wind, clouds, rain....
    I use currently a page from Meteoblue to have a quick view of different models on a location:
    https://www.meteoblue.com/fr/meteo/prevision/multimodel/tours_france_2972191
    It is a way to know which confidence level we can expect at a certain time. It’s similar to ensemble models diagrams but with different models instead of comparing different members of one model.
    It gives a good mean to appreciate the forecast quality of high resolution models in some places like towns, mountains, sea coast....



  • A first step could be to show the ensemble results of one model as uncertainty area. See the following example (of the DWD WarnWetter app) for the temperature:
    temperature chart


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