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    INVEST 92A - Tropical Cyclone 02A (MEKUNU)

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    • Gkikas LGPZ
      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

      An area of convection in the Indian Ocean has a risk to develop to a tropical storm after several days moving northwards.
      0_1526723014682_498f85c9-c063-47f2-9819-b3e5e9df4dc2-εικόνα.png
      We'll keep an eye on it.
      https://www.windy.com/?10.077,59.019,5,i:pressure

      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 5
      • Gkikas LGPZ
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

        Updated data:
        Both models (ECMWF and GFS) agree that 92A will intesify over the next days and will track to the north.
        Tracks for the period 21~26 May, are shown on the map
        0_1526814198059_96aa054e-6960-4a9f-a518-c0eb30325af3-εικόνα.png

        idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
        • idefix37
          idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

          @gkikas-lgpz
          I was preparing the same double map, but you are faster!
          Your way to show the track is very smart.

          Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
          • Gkikas LGPZ
            Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

            INVEST 92 A TRACKING MAP
            ( from www.cyclocane.com )

            0_1526877724802_4d46c7ec-cb4e-4703-a079-bfca7289ff80-εικόνα.png

            idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
            • idefix37
              idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

              @gkikas-lgpz
              Do you know which NWP models are used by Cyclocane to draw their « spaghetti » tracks named APxx ?

              Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
              • Gkikas LGPZ
                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                @idefix37
                According to the following image I fund here
                https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/spaghetti-models-tropics-tropical-storm-hurricane
                APxx must be ensemble members of GEFS model (GEFS has 20 members)
                0_1526890293517_2cdf45dc-75cb-4ccd-8136-f570a8fd1e0f-εικόνα.png

                idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                • idefix37
                  idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                  @gkikas-lgpz
                  Thanks

                  Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                  • Gkikas LGPZ
                    Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by

                    According to http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
                    "Invest 92A" is likely to develop into Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs.
                    Stay alert!

                    Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                    • Gkikas LGPZ
                      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                      Invest 92A upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 02A
                      and is expected to make a landfall near Salalah, Oman
                      on Saturday morning.
                      0_1526964696725_ed652b2b-1ed5-416e-be58-b6aa2453eebf-εικόνα.png

                      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                      • Gkikas LGPZ
                        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                        A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
                        According to ICON Global Model,
                        it will move NorthEastwards and will stay on the sea dissipating!
                        Data from www.ventusky.com
                        0_1526973663701_a0437dd5-b04e-4afd-94ae-e78a8b27fb5c-εικόνα.png

                        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                        • Gkikas LGPZ
                          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                          The same (NE) track on NEMS GLOBAL model
                          https://www.meteoblue.com/el/καιρός/webmap/index/Σοκότρα_Υεμένη_70302?variable=precipitation3h_cloudcover_pressure&level=surface&lines=none&mapcenter=12.3615N52.7783&zoom=5

                          idefix37 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                          • idefix37
                            idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                            @gkikas-lgpz
                            Interesting, but what is strange is a different location if you choose Wind or Pressure/Rain parameter !! These maps from Meteoblue are issued from the same run 22-05 at 00UTC

                            0_1526978416280_6CE1CF49-BB07-4977-AC2C-6A013ACCEC52.jpeg

                            Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                            • Gkikas LGPZ
                              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @idefix37 last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                              @idefix37
                              Same run but different models !!!
                              Take a look at model's name at the lower-left of the image.
                              NEMS for rain, GFS for wind.
                              0_1526980811706_62f0a6f7-81c3-4e68-aa60-60e420bfe4fe-εικόνα.png

                              Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                              • Gkikas LGPZ
                                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                                Today we see a wide spread of the GEFS runs that indicates low confidence.
                                0_1526982847332_454e5606-20f0-487b-b500-852a84d4a333-εικόνα.png

                                Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                • Gkikas LGPZ
                                  Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                                  @gkikas-lgpz
                                  Tropical Cyclone MEKUNU will pass just east of Socotra moving Northwards
                                  to the Yemen-Oman border.
                                  Winds now at 55 kts are expected to intensify tomorrow (Thu) to a hurricane-equivalent strength and on Friday will reach a peak of 85 kts (gusts 110 kts).

                                  On Friday morning, Yemen and Oman must expect heavy rain and very strong winds.
                                  MEKUNU will weaken after landfall.
                                  0_1527050718561_77deb51b-a2b3-428b-92cf-15c0ae1c61f1-εικόνα.png

                                  Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                  • Gkikas LGPZ
                                    Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                                    Observed-forecast track and
                                    the latest bulletin from India Meteorological Dept.
                                    http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

                                    Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                    • Gkikas LGPZ
                                      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                                      @gkikas-lgpz
                                      The latest (23 May/00z) wind analysis from satellite data
                                      show max wind 54 kts and central pressure 987 hPa
                                      0_1527054300440_8bf786e2-8ff2-4001-ba98-5e7a5dc98ead-εικόνα.png
                                      Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html?storm=IO022018&id=MEKUNU

                                      Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                      • Gkikas LGPZ
                                        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                                        Actual and forecast data (23 May/08z)

                                        0_1527066397036_4cb61032-e009-4957-846b-60e002d20f2e-εικόνα.png

                                        Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                                        • Gkikas LGPZ
                                          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                                          Mekunu track (as forecasted by ECMWF and GFS)
                                          0_1527139020323_5b4ba7bd-d46a-44b2-a0ce-f29a38083a74-εικόνα.png

                                          Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                                          • Gkikas LGPZ
                                            Gkikas LGPZ Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ last edited by

                                            well organized, with the characteristic "eye" (source: EUMETSAT)
                                            0_1527140071562_74a03361-6a08-431e-ba07-5ee84beabc1a-εικόνα.png

                                            Gkikas LGPZ 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
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