INVEST 92A - Tropical Cyclone 02A (MEKUNU)
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An area of convection in the Indian Ocean has a risk to develop to a tropical storm after several days moving northwards.
We'll keep an eye on it.
https://www.windy.com/?10.077,59.019,5,i:pressure
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Updated data:
Both models (ECMWF and GFS) agree that 92A will intesify over the next days and will track to the north.
Tracks for the period 21~26 May, are shown on the map
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@gkikas-lgpz
I was preparing the same double map, but you are faster!
Your way to show the track is very smart.
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INVEST 92 A TRACKING MAP
( from www.cyclocane.com )
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@gkikas-lgpz
Do you know which NWP models are used by Cyclocane to draw their « spaghetti » tracks named APxx ?
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@idefix37
According to the following image I fund here
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/spaghetti-models-tropics-tropical-storm-hurricane
APxx must be ensemble members of GEFS model (GEFS has 20 members)
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@gkikas-lgpz
Thanks
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According to http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
"Invest 92A" is likely to develop into Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs.
Stay alert!
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Invest 92A upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 02A
and is expected to make a landfall near Salalah, Oman
on Saturday morning.
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A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
According to ICON Global Model,
it will move NorthEastwards and will stay on the sea dissipating!
Data from www.ventusky.com
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The same (NE) track on NEMS GLOBAL model
https://www.meteoblue.com/el/καιρός/webmap/index/Σοκότρα_Υεμένη_70302?variable=precipitation3h_cloudcover_pressure&level=surface&lines=none&mapcenter=12.3615N52.7783&zoom=5
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@gkikas-lgpz
Interesting, but what is strange is a different location if you choose Wind or Pressure/Rain parameter !! These maps from Meteoblue are issued from the same run 22-05 at 00UTC
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@idefix37
Same run but different models !!!
Take a look at model's name at the lower-left of the image.
NEMS for rain, GFS for wind.
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Today we see a wide spread of the GEFS runs that indicates low confidence.
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@gkikas-lgpz
Tropical Cyclone MEKUNU will pass just east of Socotra moving Northwards
to the Yemen-Oman border.
Winds now at 55 kts are expected to intensify tomorrow (Thu) to a hurricane-equivalent strength and on Friday will reach a peak of 85 kts (gusts 110 kts).On Friday morning, Yemen and Oman must expect heavy rain and very strong winds.
MEKUNU will weaken after landfall.
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Observed-forecast track and
the latest bulletin from India Meteorological Dept.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en
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@gkikas-lgpz
The latest (23 May/00z) wind analysis from satellite data
show max wind 54 kts and central pressure 987 hPa
Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html?storm=IO022018&id=MEKUNU
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Actual and forecast data (23 May/08z)
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Mekunu track (as forecasted by ECMWF and GFS)
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well organized, with the characteristic "eye" (source: EUMETSAT)
