INVEST 92A - Tropical Cyclone 02A (MEKUNU)
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INVEST 92 A TRACKING MAP
( from www.cyclocane.com ) -
@gkikas-lgpz
Do you know which NWP models are used by Cyclocane to draw their « spaghetti » tracks named APxx ? -
@idefix37
According to the following image I fund here
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/spaghetti-models-tropics-tropical-storm-hurricane
APxx must be ensemble members of GEFS model (GEFS has 20 members)
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@gkikas-lgpz
Thanks -
According to http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
"Invest 92A" is likely to develop into Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs.
Stay alert! -
Invest 92A upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 02A
and is expected to make a landfall near Salalah, Oman
on Saturday morning.
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A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
According to ICON Global Model,
it will move NorthEastwards and will stay on the sea dissipating!
Data from www.ventusky.com
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@gkikas-lgpz
Interesting, but what is strange is a different location if you choose Wind or Pressure/Rain parameter !! These maps from Meteoblue are issued from the same run 22-05 at 00UTC -
@idefix37
Same run but different models !!!
Take a look at model's name at the lower-left of the image.
NEMS for rain, GFS for wind.
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Today we see a wide spread of the GEFS runs that indicates low confidence.
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@gkikas-lgpz
Tropical Cyclone MEKUNU will pass just east of Socotra moving Northwards
to the Yemen-Oman border.
Winds now at 55 kts are expected to intensify tomorrow (Thu) to a hurricane-equivalent strength and on Friday will reach a peak of 85 kts (gusts 110 kts).On Friday morning, Yemen and Oman must expect heavy rain and very strong winds.
MEKUNU will weaken after landfall.
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Observed-forecast track and
the latest bulletin from India Meteorological Dept.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en -
@gkikas-lgpz
The latest (23 May/00z) wind analysis from satellite data
show max wind 54 kts and central pressure 987 hPa
Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html?storm=IO022018&id=MEKUNU -
Actual and forecast data (23 May/08z)
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Mekunu track (as forecasted by ECMWF and GFS)
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well organized, with the characteristic "eye" (source: EUMETSAT)
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Weather radar observations (Salalah, Oman)
http://met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/weather-chart/map-data/
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Salalah's hospital is evacuating as Menuku approaches ...
http://timesofoman.com/article/135056/Oman/Cyclone-Mekunu-Sultan-Qaboos-Hospital-being-evacuated?utm_campaign=layout&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=layout_related_articlesand flights to and from Salalah Airport could be delayed or cancelled
http://timesofoman.com/article/135057/Oman/Transport/SalamAir-announces-possible-flight-delays-and-cancellations-due-to-the-cycloneSocotra (aftermaths)
https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/eight-missing-after-cyclone-mekunu-hits-yemen-s-socotra-island-1.733447 -
Latest (25 May / 05:22 UTC) radar image from Salalah, Oman