INVEST 92A - Tropical Cyclone 02A (MEKUNU)

[idefix37]

@gkikas-lgpz
Do you know which NWP models are used by Cyclocane to draw their « spaghetti » tracks named APxx ?

[Gkikas LGPZ]

@idefix37
According to the following image I fund here
https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/spaghetti-models-tropics-tropical-storm-hurricane
APxx must be ensemble members of GEFS model (GEFS has 20 members)

[idefix37]

@gkikas-lgpz
Thanks

[Gkikas LGPZ]

According to http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
"Invest 92A" is likely to develop into Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs.
Stay alert!

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Invest 92A upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 02A
and is expected to make a landfall near Salalah, Oman
on Saturday morning.

[Gkikas LGPZ]

A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
According to ICON Global Model,
it will move NorthEastwards and will stay on the sea dissipating!
Data from www.ventusky.com

[Gkikas LGPZ]

The same (NE) track on NEMS GLOBAL model
https://www.meteoblue.com/el/καιρός/webmap/index/Σοκότρα_Υεμένη_70302?variable=precipitation3h_cloudcover_pressure&level=surface&lines=none&mapcenter=12.3615N52.7783&zoom=5

[idefix37]

@gkikas-lgpz
Interesting, but what is strange is a different location if you choose Wind or Pressure/Rain parameter !! These maps from Meteoblue are issued from the same run 22-05 at 00UTC

[Gkikas LGPZ]

@idefix37
Same run but different models !!!
Take a look at model's name at the lower-left of the image.
NEMS for rain, GFS for wind.

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Today we see a wide spread of the GEFS runs that indicates low confidence.

[Gkikas LGPZ]

@gkikas-lgpz
Tropical Cyclone MEKUNU will pass just east of Socotra moving Northwards
to the Yemen-Oman border.
Winds now at 55 kts are expected to intensify tomorrow (Thu) to a hurricane-equivalent strength and on Friday will reach a peak of 85 kts (gusts 110 kts).

On Friday morning, Yemen and Oman must expect heavy rain and very strong winds.
MEKUNU will weaken after landfall.

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Observed-forecast track and
the latest bulletin from India Meteorological Dept.
http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

[Gkikas LGPZ]

@gkikas-lgpz
The latest (23 May/00z) wind analysis from satellite data
show max wind 54 kts and central pressure 987 hPa

Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html?storm=IO022018&id=MEKUNU

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Actual and forecast data (23 May/08z)

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Mekunu track (as forecasted by ECMWF and GFS)

[Gkikas LGPZ]

well organized, with the characteristic "eye" (source: EUMETSAT)

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Weather radar observations (Salalah, Oman)
http://met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/weather-chart/map-data/

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Salalah's hospital is evacuating as Menuku approaches ...
http://timesofoman.com/article/135056/Oman/Cyclone-Mekunu-Sultan-Qaboos-Hospital-being-evacuated?utm_campaign=layout&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=layout_related_articles

and flights to and from Salalah Airport could be delayed or cancelled
http://timesofoman.com/article/135057/Oman/Transport/SalamAir-announces-possible-flight-delays-and-cancellations-due-to-the-cyclone

Socotra (aftermaths)
https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/eight-missing-after-cyclone-mekunu-hits-yemen-s-socotra-island-1.733447

[Gkikas LGPZ]

Latest (25 May / 05:22 UTC) radar image from Salalah, Oman

[Gkikas LGPZ]

MEKUNU approaching Oman
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_02A/web/basicGifDisplay.html