INVEST 92A - Tropical Cyclone 02A (MEKUNU)
According to http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
"Invest 92A" is likely to develop into Tropical Cyclone within 24hrs.
Invest 92A upgraded to Tropical Cyclone 02A
and is expected to make a landfall near Salalah, Oman
on Saturday morning.
A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
According to ICON Global Model,
it will move NorthEastwards and will stay on the sea dissipating!
Data from www.ventusky.com
Interesting, but what is strange is a different location if you choose Wind or Pressure/Rain parameter !! These maps from Meteoblue are issued from the same run 22-05 at 00UTC
Same run but different models !!!
Take a look at model's name at the lower-left of the image.
NEMS for rain, GFS for wind.
Today we see a wide spread of the GEFS runs that indicates low confidence.
Tropical Cyclone MEKUNU will pass just east of Socotra moving Northwards
to the Yemen-Oman border.
Winds now at 55 kts are expected to intensify tomorrow (Thu) to a hurricane-equivalent strength and on Friday will reach a peak of 85 kts (gusts 110 kts).
On Friday morning, Yemen and Oman must expect heavy rain and very strong winds.
MEKUNU will weaken after landfall.
Observed-forecast track and
the latest bulletin from India Meteorological Dept.
The latest (23 May/00z) wind analysis from satellite data
show max wind 54 kts and central pressure 987 hPa
Actual and forecast data (23 May/08z)
Mekunu track (as forecasted by ECMWF and GFS)
well organized, with the characteristic "eye" (source: EUMETSAT)
Weather radar observations (Salalah, Oman)
Salalah's hospital is evacuating as Menuku approaches ...
and flights to and from Salalah Airport could be delayed or cancelled
Latest (25 May / 05:22 UTC) radar image from Salalah, Oman
MEKUNU approaching Oman
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
radar image 25 May 2018 / 14:23 UTC
Salalah received 278.2 mm of rain, nearly three times its annual rainfall !