INVEST 92A - Tropical Cyclone 02A (MEKUNU)
A DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE
According to ICON Global Model,
it will move NorthEastwards and will stay on the sea dissipating!
Data from www.ventusky.com
The same (NE) track on NEMS GLOBAL model
Interesting, but what is strange is a different location if you choose Wind or Pressure/Rain parameter !! These maps from Meteoblue are issued from the same run 22-05 at 00UTC
Same run but different models !!!
Take a look at model's name at the lower-left of the image.
NEMS for rain, GFS for wind.
Today we see a wide spread of the GEFS runs that indicates low confidence.
Tropical Cyclone MEKUNU will pass just east of Socotra moving Northwards
to the Yemen-Oman border.
Winds now at 55 kts are expected to intensify tomorrow (Thu) to a hurricane-equivalent strength and on Friday will reach a peak of 85 kts (gusts 110 kts).
On Friday morning, Yemen and Oman must expect heavy rain and very strong winds.
MEKUNU will weaken after landfall.
Observed-forecast track and
the latest bulletin from India Meteorological Dept.
The latest (23 May/00z) wind analysis from satellite data
show max wind 54 kts and central pressure 987 hPa
Actual and forecast data (23 May/08z)
Mekunu track (as forecasted by ECMWF and GFS)
well organized, with the characteristic "eye" (source: EUMETSAT)
Weather radar observations (Salalah, Oman)
Salalah's hospital is evacuating as Menuku approaches ...
and flights to and from Salalah Airport could be delayed or cancelled
Latest (25 May / 05:22 UTC) radar image from Salalah, Oman
MEKUNU approaching Oman
Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
radar image 25 May 2018 / 14:23 UTC
Salalah received 278.2 mm of rain, nearly three times its annual rainfall !