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    INVEST 92A - Tropical Cyclone 02A (MEKUNU)

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    • idefix37I
      idefix37 Sailor Moderator @Gkikas LGPZ
      last edited by

      @gkikas-lgpz
      Interesting, but what is strange is a different location if you choose Wind or Pressure/Rain parameter !! These maps from Meteoblue are issued from the same run 22-05 at 00UTC

      0_1526978416280_6CE1CF49-BB07-4977-AC2C-6A013ACCEC52.jpeg

      Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
      • Gkikas LGPZG
        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @idefix37
        last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

        @idefix37
        Same run but different models !!!
        Take a look at model's name at the lower-left of the image.
        NEMS for rain, GFS for wind.
        0_1526980811706_62f0a6f7-81c3-4e68-aa60-60e420bfe4fe-εικόνα.png

        Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
        • Gkikas LGPZG
          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
          last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

          Today we see a wide spread of the GEFS runs that indicates low confidence.
          0_1526982847332_454e5606-20f0-487b-b500-852a84d4a333-εικόνα.png

          Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
          • Gkikas LGPZG
            Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
            last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

            @gkikas-lgpz
            Tropical Cyclone MEKUNU will pass just east of Socotra moving Northwards
            to the Yemen-Oman border.
            Winds now at 55 kts are expected to intensify tomorrow (Thu) to a hurricane-equivalent strength and on Friday will reach a peak of 85 kts (gusts 110 kts).

            On Friday morning, Yemen and Oman must expect heavy rain and very strong winds.
            MEKUNU will weaken after landfall.
            0_1527050718561_77deb51b-a2b3-428b-92cf-15c0ae1c61f1-εικόνα.png

            Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
            • Gkikas LGPZG
              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
              last edited by

              Observed-forecast track and
              the latest bulletin from India Meteorological Dept.
              http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php?lang=en

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              • Gkikas LGPZG
                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                last edited by

                @gkikas-lgpz
                The latest (23 May/00z) wind analysis from satellite data
                show max wind 54 kts and central pressure 987 hPa
                0_1527054300440_8bf786e2-8ff2-4001-ba98-5e7a5dc98ead-εικόνα.png
                Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtcswa.html?storm=IO022018&id=MEKUNU

                Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                • Gkikas LGPZG
                  Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                  last edited by

                  Actual and forecast data (23 May/08z)

                  0_1527066397036_4cb61032-e009-4957-846b-60e002d20f2e-εικόνα.png

                  Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 2
                  • Gkikas LGPZG
                    Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                    last edited by

                    Mekunu track (as forecasted by ECMWF and GFS)
                    0_1527139020323_5b4ba7bd-d46a-44b2-a0ce-f29a38083a74-εικόνα.png

                    Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                    • Gkikas LGPZG
                      Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                      last edited by

                      well organized, with the characteristic "eye" (source: EUMETSAT)
                      0_1527140071562_74a03361-6a08-431e-ba07-5ee84beabc1a-εικόνα.png

                      Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                      • Gkikas LGPZG
                        Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                        last edited by

                        Weather radar observations (Salalah, Oman)
                        http://met.gov.om/opencms/export/sites/default/dgman/en/weather-chart/map-data/
                        0_1527150306074_d060f722-2152-45a6-9ddd-b8f560f1552d-εικόνα.png

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                        • Gkikas LGPZG
                          Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                          last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                          Salalah's hospital is evacuating as Menuku approaches ...
                          http://timesofoman.com/article/135056/Oman/Cyclone-Mekunu-Sultan-Qaboos-Hospital-being-evacuated?utm_campaign=layout&utm_source=article_page&utm_medium=layout_related_articles

                          and flights to and from Salalah Airport could be delayed or cancelled
                          http://timesofoman.com/article/135057/Oman/Transport/SalamAir-announces-possible-flight-delays-and-cancellations-due-to-the-cyclone

                          Socotra (aftermaths)
                          https://www.thenational.ae/world/mena/eight-missing-after-cyclone-mekunu-hits-yemen-s-socotra-island-1.733447

                          Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                          • Gkikas LGPZG
                            Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                            last edited by

                            Latest (25 May / 05:22 UTC) radar image from Salalah, Oman
                            0_1527227138814_ddc35a9e-cb80-4b57-8586-a80ce352fe83-εικόνα.png

                            Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                            • Gkikas LGPZG
                              Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                              last edited by Gkikas LGPZ

                              MEKUNU approaching Oman
                              Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC)
                              http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_02A/web/basicGifDisplay.html

                              Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 1
                              • Gkikas LGPZG
                                Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                                last edited by

                                radar image 25 May 2018 / 14:23 UTC
                                0_1527259364775_e6fddbd6-ee14-4d6e-bb75-aa9786090d4a-εικόνα.png

                                Gkikas LGPZG 1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                • Gkikas LGPZG
                                  Gkikas LGPZ Moderator Meteorologist @Gkikas LGPZ
                                  last edited by

                                  According to
                                  http://www.whec.com/national/oman-raises-death-toll-in-aftermath-of-cyclone-mekunu-to-6/4926039/?cat=10049
                                  Salalah received 278.2 mm of rain, nearly three times its annual rainfall !

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